Report published August 26, 2026
LATAM Today: Goldman Sachs on Brazil IPCA-15 Inflation and Mexico 2Q26 Balance of Payments
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos, Sergio Armella, Santiago Tellez, Panteleymon Semka
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Brazil's Aug IPCA-15 inflation fell more than expected to -0.40% mom, though high core services momentum suggests limited room for rate cuts. Meanwhile, Mexico posted a higher-than-expected 2Q26 current account surplus of US$8.9bn, alongside firming fixed-income portfolio flows but subdued FDI.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Brazil's August IPCA-15 mid-month inflation fell more than expected to -0.40% mom (4.24% yoy), but core services remain stubbornly elevated at 0.50% mom (4.7% 3-mma sa), limiting room for central bank rate cuts.
- 2.Mexico recorded a stronger-than-expected 2Q26 current account surplus of US$8.9bn, supported by non-oil trade, remittances, and a narrowing factor payments deficit.
- 3.Mexico's capital flows show mixed dynamics: portfolio flows turned positive to US$1.6bn driven by fixed-income inflows exceeding equity outflows, whereas FDI remained soft at US$8.6bn with modest greenfield equity investment.
Table of Contents
- BRAZIL
- Lower Than Expected Aug IPCA-15; High Core-Services
- DETAILS:
- Data This Week:
- MEXICO
- Solid 2Q26 Current Account Surplus; Soft FDI; Firmer Portfolio Flows
- LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
- LA-IT5 Policy Rate
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil IPCA-15 MoM | -0.40% | Below consensus expectation of -0.32% mom |
| Brazil IPCA-15 YoY | 4.24% | Decelerated from 4.51%/4.52% in July IPCA-15 |
| Brazil Core-Services Inflation MoM | 0.50% | Above consensus expectation of 0.43% and 0.30% in July |
| Mexico Current Account Balance | 8.9 USD bn | Surplus beating consensus expectation of US$3.8bn and up from US$-4.5bn in 2Q25 |
| Mexico Workers' Remittances | 16.1 USD bn | Up from US$15.5bn in 2Q25 |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brazil IPCA-15 MoM: -0.40 % (Aug 2026)
- Brazil IPCA-15 YoY: 4.24 % (Aug 2026)
- Brazil Core-Services Inflation MoM: 0.50 % (Aug 2026)
- Mexico Current Account Balance: 8.9 USD bn (2Q 2026) · Source: Bloomberg
- Mexico Workers' Remittances: 16.1 USD bn (2Q 2026)
Themes
Regions
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