Report published September 9, 2026

Korea: Attractive Shareholder Returns Backed by Strong Fundamentals and Policy Drivers

Goldman Sachs · September 9, 2026

Goldman Sachs argues that Korean equity shareholder returns are set to rise significantly, backed by supportive government policies (Value-up program, tax incentives) and record free cash flow. Aggregate dividends and buybacks are projected to push total shareholder return yields to approximately 9% in 2026 and 14% in 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Policy incentives, cash-flow generation, and corporate behavior are mutually reinforcing, potentially turning shareholder returns into a durable driver of Korean equity performance.
2.Total shareholder-return yield in Korea is expected to expand to historically high levels of approximately 9% in 2026 and 14% in 2027.
3.Earnings fundamentals and free-cash-flow generation are strong, with non-financial listed companies holding over KRW800tn in cash (~15% of KOSPI market capitalization) to fund payouts without harming balance sheets.

Government Policy: A Consistently Supportive Policy Push to Drive Better Shareholder Returns
Strong Fundamentals to Support Further Upside in Shareholder Returns
Attractive Total Shareholder Returns: Strong FCF Meets a Structural Shift in Payout Behavior
Alpha exposure to the shareholder return theme
(1) Dividend tax separation/tax cut beneficiaries
(2) Top 30 KOSPI 200 companies with scope for further treasury share cancellations
(3) Holding companies trading at deep NAV discounts that may benefit from higher dividend income from subsidiaries
(4) Narrower preferred share discount candidates from rising dividends

Report data

Exhibit 1: The government has implemented several measures to boost shareholder returns and address the Korea discount

Metric	Estimate	Context
Korea Total Shareholder Return Yield	9.0%	Estimated market total shareholder return yield from aggregate dividends and buybacks.
Korea Total Shareholder Return Yield	14.0%	Estimated market total shareholder return yield from aggregate dividends and buybacks.
Korea Earnings Growth Forecast (GS)	350.0%	Goldman Sachs raised EPS growth forecast for Korea amid improving fundamentals.
Cash on Balance Sheets (ex-financials)	800.0 KRW trillion	Cash held by Korean listed companies excluding financials, equivalent to ~15% of KOSPI market capitalization.
KOSPI Companies with NTM Dividend Yield > 4%	84.0 companies	84 of 258 KOSPI companies with consensus data offer dividend yields above 4%.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.