Report published September 1, 2026
Kazakhstan Inflation Drops to 9.9%: Goldman Sachs Forecasts 75bp NBK Rate Cut
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Basak Edizgil, Clemens Grafe
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Kazakhstan's headline CPI dropped to 9.9% yoy in August 2026, falling to single digits earlier than expected by the NBK. Goldman Sachs maintains its call for a 75bp rate cut this Friday (versus consensus of -25bp) and sees the policy rate reaching 15.00% by year-end.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Kazakhstan's headline CPI dropped from 10.3% yoy in July to 9.9% yoy in August 2026, reaching single digits earlier than the NBK anticipated.
- 2.Goldman Sachs forecasts a 75bp rate cut by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) this Friday, well above the consensus expectation of a 25bp cut.
- 3.Year-end inflation is projected to reach 9.5% yoy, with the NBK policy rate expected to fall to 15.00% by year-end, supported by tenge strength, subdued food prices, and contained quasi-fiscal spending.
Table of Contents
- Kazakhstan: Headline Inflation Fell to 9.9%yoy in August, in Line with Our Forecast but Below Consensus
- Monthly Inflation Breakdown
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Monthly Inflation Breakdown
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan Headline CPI | 9.9 % yoy | Headline inflation fell to single digits, matching GS forecast and coming below consensus of 10.0% yoy |
| NBK Interest Rate Decision Forecast (GS) | -75 bp | Forecast for the NBK policy rate meeting on Friday versus consensus expectation of -25bp |
| Kazakhstan Year-End Inflation Forecast (GS) | 9.5 % yoy | Goldman Sachs lowered year-end inflation forecast |
| NBK Policy Rate Year-End Forecast (GS) | 15.0% | Goldman Sachs expects the NBK to cut rates to 15.00% by year-end |
| Food, Beverages and Tobacco CPI | 9.4 % yoy | Food, beverages and tobacco annual inflation rate in August 2026 |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Kazakhstan Headline CPI: 9.9 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- NBK Interest Rate Decision Forecast (GS): -75 bp (2026-09-04)
- Kazakhstan Year-End Inflation Forecast (GS): 9.5 % yoy (2026-YE)
- NBK Policy Rate Year-End Forecast (GS): 15.0 % (2026-YE)
- Food, Beverages and Tobacco CPI: 9.4 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
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