Report published September 30, 2026
Japan Telecom Services: Impact of KDDI/Rakuten Mobile Roaming Agreement Changes (From October) – Goldman Sachs Equity Research
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
KDDI and Rakuten Mobile are transitioning to a new roaming agreement from October 1 that will reduce KDDI's roaming area in major designated cities by 50–60% in a matter of months. This is anticipated to slow Rakuten's subscriber additions, create a modest revenue upside of ~¥10 bn vs. guidance for KDDI, and slightly ease competitive pressure for NTT and Softbank.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.KDDI's roaming area provided to Rakuten Mobile in government-designated major cities nationwide is expected to shrink by 50–60% over the next few months under the new agreement starting October 1.
- 2.Rakuten Mobile's subscriber acquisition is expected to decelerate in the short term due to decreased network quality, with increased depreciation from network investments weighing on medium-term earnings.
- 3.For KDDI, declining Rakuten roaming revenues will create a headwind starting in 2H3/27, but remain an upside factor of roughly +¥10 bn against guidance which assumed zero roaming sales.
Table of Contents
- Price Target Risks and Methodology
- Price Target Risks and Methodology: NTT
- Price Target Risks and Methodology - KDDI
- Price Target Risks and Methodology - Softbank Corp.
Report data
Price target and rating history chart(s)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Roaming Area Reduction in Major Designated Cities | 50–60%% | Expected contraction of KDDI's roaming coverage provided to Rakuten Mobile in major government-designated cities |
| KDDI Roaming Upside vs Guidance | +10 bn or so JPY | Potential upside for KDDI sales and profits relative to company guidance which assumed zero roaming revenues |
| NTT 12-Month Target Price | 191 JPY | Goldman Sachs target price implying an FY3/28E P/E of about 13X |
| KDDI 12-Month Target Price | 2920 JPY | Goldman Sachs target price based on FY3/28E EBITDA of ¥2,031 bn and an EV/EBITDA of 6.8X |
| Softbank Corp. 12-Month Target Price | 290 JPY | Goldman Sachs target price based on FY3/28E EBITDA of ¥2,155 bn and an EV/EBITDA of 7.9X |
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