Report published September 30, 2026

Japan Shipbuilding: Earnings Expectations Rising for Both Commercial and Defense-Related Businesses — Goldman Sachs Equity Research

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy ratings on Namura Shipbuilding, Mitsui E&S, and Tokyo Keiki amid rising earnings expectations for Japan's shipbuilding industry. The sector is benefiting from historically high order backlogs, government-supported capacity expansions, tightening marine engine supply, and expanding domestic and international defense procurement.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Japan's shipbuilding backlog reached 29.57 mn GT as of end-August 2026, securing delivery demand for the next 3.5 years at historically high levels.
2.Subsidies from MLIT's shipbuilding industry revitalization fund will support capacity expansions, such as Namura Shipbuilding's planned ¥150 bn 10-year investment to double production.
3.Domestic and overseas naval defense demand provides strong catalysts, including Japan's upcoming strategic security document revision and a potential US$1.85 bn US defense allocation utilizing Japanese/South Korean shipyards.

Current conditions for Japan's shipbuilders
Global shipbuilding industry order trends
Trends at non-covered companies
Our views on Namura Shipbuilding, Mitsui E&S, and Tokyo Keiki
Our estimate revisions
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Namura Shipbuilding Co.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Mitsui E&S Co.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Tokyo Keiki
Investment Thesis - Namura Shipbuilding Co.
Investment Thesis: Mitsui E&S
Investment Thesis - Tokyo Keiki

Report data

Exhibit 1: Overview of shipbuilding-related companies — as of September 29, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Japan Shipbuilding Order Backlog	29.57 mn GT	Represents secured vessel delivery demand for the next 3.5 years at historically high levels.
Cumulative Shipbuilding Order Volume	6.2 mn GT	Cumulative export order volume in Japan for Jan-Aug 2026.
Namura Shipbuilding 10-Year Capital Investment Plan	150 JPY bn	Aims to double shipbuilding volume versus FY2024 with subsidies from the revitalization fund.
Potential US Defense Budget Allocation for Japan/South Korea Yards	1.85 USD bn	Media reports indicate potential procurement of naval vessels utilizing shipyards in Japan or South Korea.
Namura Shipbuilding FY3/27 Operating Profit Forecast (GS)	33.7 JPY bn	GS forecast beats company guidance of ¥29 bn.

Source: Japan Ship Exporters' Association; Company data; Media reports; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.