Goldman Sachs Japan Focus: BOJ Rate Hike Shift, Q2 MOF Capex & Industrial Production

Goldman Sachs brought forward its forecast for the BOJ's next policy rate hike to September 2026, targeting a 1.75% terminal rate by July 2027. For upcoming data releases, capex in the Q2 MOF Corporate Statistics is expected to contract -1.0% yoy, and July industrial production is projected to decline -1.5% mom following earthquake disruptions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs revised its BOJ rate hike baseline to September (from January 2027 previously), expecting subsequent hikes in January 2027 and July 2027 to reach a 1.75% terminal rate.
• 2.Capex in the Q2 MOF Corporate Statistics is projected to fall by -1.0% yoy (-0.9% qoq), marking its first yoy decline in six quarters amid geopolitical uncertainty and delivery delays.
• 3.July industrial production is forecast to fall -1.5% mom, underperforming METI's survey due to disruptions caused by the Kumamoto earthquake in late July.

Table of Contents

• Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (August 31 - September 4)
• Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events
• Research Recap
• Revising BOJ Policy Rate Forecasts: Now Forecasting September Hike
• This Week's Recap: Economic Events and Data
• August Tokyo CPI: New Core CPI Accelerates in Line With Market Forecast on Rise in Rent; August National CPI Expected to Remain Flat
• Reference: Japan One Month Economic Calendar
• Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (August 31 - September 4)

Reports in this series

Japan Focus of the Week is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the Japan Focus of the Week series — view all 9 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Japan Focus of the Week Q2 GDP Revision, July Wage, August Corporate Goods Prices (Sep 4, 2026)

1. May 22Japan Focus of the Week May Tokyo CPI
2. May 24Japan Focus of the Week May Tokyo CPI, April Production, May Consumer Confidence
3. Jun 5Japan Focus of the Week Q1 GDP Revision
4. Jul 3Japan Focus of the Week: BOJ Branch Managers’ Meeting, May Wage, June Corporate Goods Prices
5. Jul 24Japan Focus of the Week BOJ Meeting, July Tokyo CPI, June Industrial Production
6. Jul 31Japan Focus of the Week June Wage
7. Aug 7Japan Focus of the Week BOJ Summary of Opinions , July Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index(1)

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