Report published September 30, 2026
Japan: August Production Falls Below Market Forecast for Second Consecutive Month; Retail Sales Also Slightly Below Market Forecast — Goldman Sachs Analysis
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Japan's August industrial production fell -1.7% mom, missing the consensus forecast of +1.4% due in part to supply chain disruptions from the late-July Kumamoto earthquake. August retail sales also softened to +2.7% yoy (-1.2% mom), falling slightly short of expectations.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Japan's August industrial production fell by -1.7% mom, far missing consensus expectations (+1.4% mom) and marking a second consecutive month of decline, partly impacted by supply disruptions from the late-July Kumamoto earthquake.
- 2.Retail sales in August decelerated to +2.7% yoy and contracted by -1.2% mom, also coming in below consensus forecasts as sales turned downward across all retail categories.
- 3.METI's bias-adjusted production outlook points to a projected rebound of +1.6% mom in September.
Table of Contents
- August Production Falls Well Below Market Forecast, Declining for Second Consecutive Month
- August Retail Sales Fall Slightly Below Market Forecast
Report data
Exhibit 1: Production, Shipments and Inventories
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | -1.7 % mom | Actual August reading compared to July (-0.2%), GS expectation (+1.2%), and Bloomberg consensus (+1.4%) |
| Retail Sales (YoY) | 2.7 % yoy | Decelerated from July (+3.7% yoy) and came in below Bloomberg consensus (+3.2% yoy) |
| Retail Sales (MoM) | -1.2 % mom | Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline following July's +2.1% |
| METI Bias-Adjusted Production Outlook | 1.6 % mom | METI forward-looking bias-adjusted outlook for industrial production |
| Auto Industrial Production | -6.8 % mom | Sharp drop observed among sector production components |
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