January Core CPI and PCE Estimates

January Core CPI rose 0.30% month-over-month, meeting expectations, though Goldman Sachs raised its Core PCE estimate to 0.40% due to index weighting differences. Rising core goods prices, potentially impacted by tariffs, were offset by a decline in used car prices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Core CPI rose 0.30% month-over-month in January, matching expectations, while the year-over-year rate fell to 2.50%.
• 2.Goldman Sachs estimates a higher January Core PCE of 0.40% due to heavier weighting of electronics and lighter weighting of used cars compared to the CPI basket.
• 3.Core goods (excluding used cars) saw their fastest price increase since early 2023, attributed to start-of-year adjustments and tariff pressures.

Table of Contents

• KEY NUMBERS
• MAIN POINTS
• Disclosure Appendix
• Reg AC
• Disclosures
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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