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Report published August 25, 2026

Jackson Hole Preview: Goldman Sachs on Fed Chair Warsh's Speech and Policy Outlook

Source and citation context

Report date
August 25, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: David Mericle, Jan Hatzius, Ronnie Walker, Jessica Rindels, Elsie Peng, Alec Phillips, Pierfrancesco Mei

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

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Goldman Sachs previews the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, expecting Chairman Warsh to address high-level topics and the 2% target without giving explicit policy guidance. The bank expects the FOMC to remain on hold at the September meeting and through the end of 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Chairman Warsh is expected to reiterate commitment to the 2% inflation target, Fed communication philosophy, and broad structural topics, but is unlikely to give explicit near-term policy guidance.
  • 2.Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to remain on hold in September and through the remainder of 2026 following improved inflation data in June and July.
  • 3.Upcoming inflation data and methodology changes on September 30 are expected to lower year-over-year core PCE inflation by at least 0.2pp.

Table of Contents

  • US Daily: Jackson Hole Preview: What Will Warsh Say?
  • Q: What is the agenda for the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium?
  • Q: Does Jackson Hole matter for Fed policy and financial markets?
  • Q: What do you expect Warsh to say?
  • Q: What are other Fed officials likely to say at Jackson Hole?
  • Q: What do you expect the FOMC to do at its remaining meetings in 2026?
  • Q: What is the rest of the conference about and is it relevant to Fed policy debates?
  • The US Economics Team
  • Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

MetricEstimateContext
Fed Inflation Target2.0%FOMC inflation target defined in terms of PCE inflation
August Core CPI and PCE Inflation Forecast0.2%Expected monthly rate for August core CPI and PCE inflation
Year-over-Year Core PCE Inflation Revision-0.2 percentage pointsMethodological changes implemented on September 30 lowering YoY core PCE inflation
Source: Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

US Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.

Part of the US Daily series — view all 17 editions

Looking for the latest edition? US Daily August CPI Preview (Sep 8, 2026)

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  5. Jul 23US Daily Would Hikes Help
  6. Jul 24US Daily What the Rebound in Oil Prices Means for Upcoming Inflation Prints
  7. Jul 29US Daily Lowering Our Q2 GDP Growth Forecast
  8. Jul 29US Daily FOMC Recap No Hike and No Guidance
  9. Aug 3US Daily Less Information, More Noise
  10. Aug 6US Daily July Payrolls Preview(1)(1)
  11. Aug 10US Daily July CPI Preview

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Authors / Editors

David MericleJan HatziusRonnie WalkerJessica RindelsElsie PengAlec PhillipsPierfrancesco Mei

Reported Data Context

  • Fed Inflation Target: 2.0 % · Source: Federal Reserve
  • August Core CPI and PCE Inflation Forecast: 0.2 % (August 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
  • Year-over-Year Core PCE Inflation Revision: -0.2 percentage points (September 30, 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Themes

Federal Reserve Monetary PolicyJackson Hole SymposiumUS Inflation Trends & OutlookFinancial Innovation and Stablecoins

Regions

North AmericaUnited States

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