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Report published September 25, 2026

India Weekly Kickstart: Goldman Sachs on NIFTY Outlook, AI Capex, and Foreign Fund Flows

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

NIFTY fell 1% on the week due to rising US Treasury yields and Brent crude risks, while domestic SIP inflows touched a record $3.4bn. Active EM funds have accelerated their additions to India, though global long-only managers remain underweight by ~185 bps.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.NIFTY fell 1% during the week amid US Treasury yield pressure and elevated oil risks, while Goldman Sachs maintains a Marketweight stance on India with a June 2027 index target of 26,500.
  • 2.Foreign active long-only funds have begun to inflect their underweight stance on India, recording the largest relative exposure increase among emerging market funds over the past 1-3 months.
  • 3.Global active long-only funds remain underweight India by approximately 185 bps, leaving significant room for further foreign allocation reversal.

Table of Contents

  • Weekly Wrap
  • Focus: Foreign Positioning In India
  • Focus: AI Enablers Boosting Capex Growth
  • Views: MW India; Expect NIFTY to reach 26,500 by June'27
  • Performance summary: Global Markets, Commodities, FX, and Rates
  • India: Sector performance
  • Relative performance of MSCI India sectors
  • Thematic monitor
  • Style investing monitor
  • Earnings Revisions
  • Valuations
  • FII equity flows
  • Domestic fund flows
  • India Equity Risk Barometer (GSSRIERB)
  • Market Breadth, Volatility and Derivatives Positioning

Report data

Exhibit 4: Active long-only funds globally are underweight India by around 180bps — as of September 25, 2026.

MetricEstimateContext
MSCI India 12M Forward P/E19.6 xMSCI India forward valuation multiple, representing an ~84% premium to MXAPJ.
NSE500 Consensus Capex Growth16%Strongest capex growth in a decade outside of 2022.
AI Enablers Capex Growth65%Capex acceleration for 42 AI infra companies.
Active Long-Only Global Underweight to India-185 bpsAcross $1,440bn total assets, active allocation is 2.4% vs MSCI benchmark of 4.3%.
Monthly SIP Inflows3.4 US$ bnFresh high for domestic mutual fund systematic investment plans.
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet, EPFR, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; AMFI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

India Weekly Kickstart is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.

Part of the India Weekly Kickstart series — view all 10 editions

Looking for the latest edition? India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY settled flat w w (Oct 9, 2026)

  1. Aug 7India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY gained 1 this week
  2. Sep 4India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY lost 1 w w amid Oil Rate risks
  3. Sep 11India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY fell 2 , extending its weakness for a fifth consecutive week, amid rising oil rate risks
  4. Sep 18India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY closed the week flat as oil stabilized

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