Report published September 25, 2026
India Weekly Kickstart: Goldman Sachs on NIFTY Outlook, AI Capex, and Foreign Fund Flows
Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026
NIFTY fell 1% on the week due to rising US Treasury yields and Brent crude risks, while domestic SIP inflows touched a record $3.4bn. Active EM funds have accelerated their additions to India, though global long-only managers remain underweight by ~185 bps.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.NIFTY fell 1% during the week amid US Treasury yield pressure and elevated oil risks, while Goldman Sachs maintains a Marketweight stance on India with a June 2027 index target of 26,500.
- 2.Foreign active long-only funds have begun to inflect their underweight stance on India, recording the largest relative exposure increase among emerging market funds over the past 1-3 months.
- 3.Global active long-only funds remain underweight India by approximately 185 bps, leaving significant room for further foreign allocation reversal.
Table of Contents
- Weekly Wrap
- Focus: Foreign Positioning In India
- Focus: AI Enablers Boosting Capex Growth
- Views: MW India; Expect NIFTY to reach 26,500 by June'27
- Performance summary: Global Markets, Commodities, FX, and Rates
- India: Sector performance
- Relative performance of MSCI India sectors
- Thematic monitor
- Style investing monitor
- Earnings Revisions
- Valuations
- FII equity flows
- Domestic fund flows
- India Equity Risk Barometer (GSSRIERB)
- Market Breadth, Volatility and Derivatives Positioning
Report data
Exhibit 4: Active long-only funds globally are underweight India by around 180bps — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI India 12M Forward P/E | 19.6 x | MSCI India forward valuation multiple, representing an ~84% premium to MXAPJ. |
| NSE500 Consensus Capex Growth | 16% | Strongest capex growth in a decade outside of 2022. |
| AI Enablers Capex Growth | 65% | Capex acceleration for 42 AI infra companies. |
| Active Long-Only Global Underweight to India | -185 bps | Across $1,440bn total assets, active allocation is 2.4% vs MSCI benchmark of 4.3%. |
| Monthly SIP Inflows | 3.4 US$ bn | Fresh high for domestic mutual fund systematic investment plans. |
Reports in this series
India Weekly Kickstart is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
Part of the India Weekly Kickstart series — view all 10 editions
Looking for the latest edition? India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY settled flat w w (Oct 9, 2026)
- Aug 7India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY gained 1 this week
- Sep 4India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY lost 1 w w amid Oil Rate risks
- Sep 11India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY fell 2 , extending its weakness for a fifth consecutive week, amid rising oil rate risks
- Sep 18India Weekly Kickstart NIFTY closed the week flat as oil stabilized
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