Report published September 25, 2026

In Search of Support: Goldman Sachs Global Rates Strategy

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs notes that the global bond selloff is displaying technical exhaustion, with US valuation and extreme underweight positioning pointing to asymmetry toward lower yields. While energy volatility remains an obstacle, stretched hike pricing and curve distortions offer tactical opportunities in US, European, Japanese, and Australian rates.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.US rates valuation and real money underweight positioning indicate an asymmetric skew toward lower yields, but a clear catalyst is needed to revive duration appetite.
2.Market pricing for 90-95bp of Fed hikes over the next year is stretched vs. surveys; rate volatility and diminished hedge value explain about one hike, leaving ~25bp of risk premium unexplained.
3.Idiosyncratic widening in French OATs has reached historical extremes, suggesting favorable risk/reward for consolidation, though elevated correlation with 10y USTs means global duration relief is required.

United States and Canada
Europe
Japan
Australia and New Zealand
Forecasts
Central Bank Dashboard
Positioning and Flows Monitor
Carry/Rolldown Monitor
Treasury Supply Monitor
GS Term Premium Decomposition
2026 Trade Recommendations

Report data

Exhibit 1: More extreme duration underweight positioning tends to be followed by rates rallies

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Spot	5.06%	Spot yield for USD 10y benchmark in G10 forecasts table
German 10-Year Bund Yield Spot	3.46%	Spot yield for DEM 10y benchmark in G10 forecasts table
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Spot	5.32%	Spot yield for GBP 10y benchmark in G10 forecasts table
French 10-Year OAT Yield Spot	4.49%	Spot yield for FRA 10y benchmark in G10 forecasts table
Average 10y UST yield change following extreme duration underweight	-10 bps	Based on real money Funds Positioning Indicator (FPI) reaching current thresholds

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.