Report published August 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs: Fed Chairman Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut and Monetary Policy Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker, Elsie Peng, Pierfrancesco Mei, Jessica Rindels, Abhay Duggirala
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, stating the central bank's primary focus must be on lowering inflation to 2%. While the speech raises the probability of a September rate hike if August inflation surprises to the upside, Goldman Sachs continues to expect the FOMC will remain on hold.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole debut, emphasizing that the Fed's primary focus must remain on returning inflation to its 2% target.
- 2.Economic momentum remains robust, with capex rising rapidly (more than half driven by AI buildout) and private domestic final purchases up nearly 3% year-to-date.
- 3.The 2-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7bp following the speech, and market-implied probability of a September rate hike increased to slightly above 50%, though Goldman Sachs maintains the FOMC will remain on hold.
Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE
- MAIN POINTS
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Share of goods and services in PCE basket with price increases >3% | 54% | Cited by Chairman Warsh; well below post-pandemic highs of ~77% but above pre-pandemic level of 32%. |
| Private domestic final purchases growth pace | nearly 3% | Described as carrying signal on growth, though distorted upward by AI tech imports. |
| 2-year US Treasury yield change | 7 bp | Reaction to Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. |
| Market-implied probability of September FOMC rate hike | slightly above 50% | Priced up from roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole speech. |
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Share of goods and services in PCE basket with price increases >3%: 54 % (Past 12 months) · Source: Federal Reserve / Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Private domestic final purchases growth pace: nearly 3 % (Year-to-date 2026)
- 2-year US Treasury yield change: 7 bp (Immediate post-speech) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Market-implied probability of September FOMC rate hike: slightly above 50 % (Current (post-speech)) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
European Week Ahead
September 14, 2026
BoE Preview: Holding in September, Hiking in November
September 14, 2026
Asia Leaders Conference Takeaways: TECO: Modular Data Center in Expansion, Driving Deployment and Efficiency
September 14, 2026
China: Market Expectations for the Upcoming Trump-Xi Meeting: Signals from Our Investor Survey
September 14, 2026
China: What Do Local Clients Think About the Economy?
September 14, 2026