Report published August 31, 2026
Goldman Sachs Research: Humanoids and Auto – Building Physical AI Together
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 31, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Kota Yuzawa, Do Hyoung Kim, Mark Delaney, CFA, Christian Frenes, Chikai Tanaka, Daiki Takayama, Yuichiro Isayama, Ken Kawamoto, Joshua Kim
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs significantly raised its 2035 global humanoid robot sales forecast to 6.48 mn units ($138 bn market), highlighting the convergence of automotive manufacturing prowess and physical AI. Automotive OEMs and parts suppliers are primed to lead adoption and production, with Toyota, JTEKT, Harmonic Drive, and Renesas positioned as key beneficiaries.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs significantly raised its 2035 humanoid robot market demand forecast from 1.38 mn units to 6.48 mn units, projecting a market size of $138 bn (approx. ¥22 tn) driven by advancements in physical AI and scaling production.
- 2.The automotive industry is ideally suited to mass-produce humanoid robots and serve as early adopters, helping offset part reductions from BEV transition by pivoting powertrain and machining expertise to actuators and reduction gears.
- 3.Toyota is well-positioned with Needs, Urgency, Technology, and Commitment, potentially capturing 190,000 to 540,000 humanoid units (3-8% global share) in 2035, offering 2-6% gross profit upside.
Table of Contents
- PM summary
- Japan's robotics industry as a "user"
- Japan's robotics industry as a "creator"
- The Japanese government's ambitious robotics strategy
- Potential stock beneficiaries
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Humanoid robot readiness (Will / Should / Could analysis)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Global Humanoid Robot Unit Sales Forecast | 6.48 mn units | Goldman Sachs upgraded demand forecast for humanoid robotics. |
| Global Humanoid Robot Market Size | 138 USD bn | Represents approximately ¥22 tn in market size by 2035. |
| Humanoid Robot Average Selling Price (ASP) | 21000 USD | Manufacturing cost reductions through scale production. |
| Toyota Projected Humanoid Production | 190000 to 540000 units | Implies a global market share of approximately 3% to 8%. |
| Actuator Share of Atlas BOM Cost | 52% | BOM analysis of Boston Dynamics Atlas robot; grippers account for 32%. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Global Humanoid Robot Unit Sales Forecast: 6.48 mn units (2035) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Global Humanoid Robot Market Size: 138 USD bn (2035) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Humanoid Robot Average Selling Price (ASP): 21000 USD (2035) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Toyota Projected Humanoid Production: 190000 to 540000 units (2035) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Actuator Share of Atlas BOM Cost: 52 % (2026) · Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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