Report published August 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Commodities Strategy: Higher Refined Product Margins on Global Outages and Low Stocks
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Filippo Cuscito, Daan Struyven, Alexandra Paulus
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs upgrades its 2027 refined product margins forecasts, projecting US and European diesel crack spreads vs. Brent to average $63/bbl and $49/bbl respectively. Persistent refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East, combined with low global inventories and insufficient new capacity additions, will keep margins elevated above forward curves.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs upgrades its 2027 refined product margins forecast, projecting US/EU diesel margins vs. Brent to average $63/$49/bbl (up from $27/$19 in February) and US/EU gasoline margins at $29/$22/bbl.
- 2.Refinery runs and product exports have plummeted due to strikes in the Middle East and Russia, creating a 7mb/d year-over-year decline in global runs and leaving global outages 60% above seasonal norms.
- 3.Global refinery runs are only expected to recover to seasonal norms in 2027H2, as new capacity additions of 0.4-0.5mb/d per year in 2026-2027 remain insufficient to offset Russian outages and structural demand growth.
Table of Contents
- Higher Product Margins for Longer on Higher Outages and Lower Stocks
- Runs and Exports Plummeted Amid Refinery Outages
- A Full Recovery in Runs Requires Global Geopolitical Deescalation
- Upgrading Our 2027 Margins Forecast Above Forwards
- Trade Recommendations and Risks
- Appendix
- Team Oil
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 15: We Expect US/Europe Diesel Refined Products Margins to Average $63/49/bbl in 2027 and the US 3-2-1 Crack Spread to Average $40/bbl
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast 2027 US Diesel Margin vs. Brent | 63 $/bbl | Upgraded from $27/bbl in the February forecast. |
| Forecast 2027 Europe Diesel Margin vs. Brent | 49 $/bbl | Upgraded from $19/bbl in the February forecast. |
| Global Refined Products Export Decline | -6 mb/d | Declined 25% yoy, with Persian Gulf and Russia accounting for 75% of the drop. |
| Global Refinery Outages vs Seasonal Norms | 60% | Refinery outages remain significantly above historical seasonal averages. |
| Annual Global Refining Capacity Additions | 0.4-0.5 mb/d | Insufficient to offset Russian outages and structural demand growth. |
Reports in this series
Oil Analyst is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Looking for the latest edition? Oil Analyst Ongoing Disruptions, More Adaptation Nudging Up Our Price Forecast (Sep 7, 2026)
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Forecast 2027 US Diesel Margin vs. Brent: 63 $/bbl (2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Forecast 2027 Europe Diesel Margin vs. Brent: 49 $/bbl (2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Global Refined Products Export Decline: -6 mb/d (2026 yoy) · Source: Kpler, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Global Refinery Outages vs Seasonal Norms: 60 % (2026) · Source: IIR, Kpler, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Annual Global Refining Capacity Additions: 0.4-0.5 mb/d (2026-2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
Australia: Consumer Sentiment: Sentiment Declines 5.2% MoM in September
September 8, 2026
Japan: Q2 GDP Revised Up Slightly to +1.4% QoQ Annualized, Mainly on Capex
September 8, 2026
Whirlpool Corp.: Appliances - Labor Day 2026 Pricing Update
September 8, 2026
US Tariff Impact Tracker: Indicated Imports into LA to Increase Next Week Before Turning Negative Two Weeks Out
September 8, 2026
Pulp & Paper: Some Hardwood Momentum Building Into 4Q
September 8, 2026