Report published August 13, 2026
Goldman Sachs Daily Note: US CPI Recap, Fed Policy Outlook & Asia FX Update (August 13, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 13, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Adam Crook (Sales & Trading), Gabriel Hollis (Sales & Trading), Stuart Jenkins (Strategist), Praneet Shah (Trader)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
July US Core CPI rose 0.22% MoM, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold through year-end. In FX, the USD remains underpinned by carry, terms of trade, and AI CapEx flows, while Asian central banks fine-tune liquidity and intervene against corporate hedging pressures.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US core CPI printed at 0.22% MoM in July, while core PCE is estimated at 0.23% MoM, supporting GS's expectation that the Fed will remain on hold in September and through year-end.
- 2.USD reaction to macro surprises remains constrained, but terms-of-trade, AI CapEx flows, and carry setups continue to limit downside for the US dollar.
- 3.PBoC introduced mid-month overnight reverse repo operations capped at RMB600bn, viewed as neutral short-term liquidity management rather than a hawkish shift.
Table of Contents
- 1) US ECONOMICS (MERICLE) – CPI Recap & PCE Estimate
- 2) FX Trader Call Takeaways
- 3) Asia FX Update
- 4) GS Webcast Today @ 19:15PM BST – Spotlight on Space: The Orbital Opportunity Lifts Off
Report data
Core CPI Breakdown
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI MoM | 0.22% | Core CPI increased by 0.22% in July, roughly in line with expectations. |
| Core PCE MoM Forecast | 0.23% | We expect a 0.23% increase in core PCE prices in July, a touch above core CPI. |
| PBoC Overnight Reverse Repo Daily Cap | 600 RMB bn | PBoC announced overnight reverse repo on Aug 14, 17-19 with amount capped at RMB600bn each day. |
| Average Monthly Importer Hedging in India | 67 USD bn | Average monthly importer hedging so far this fiscal year is around US$67bn compared with US$48bn in FY26. |
Reports in this series
GS Morning is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 13, 2026.
Part of the GS Morning series — view all 12 editions
- Apr 23GS MORNING 1) FX Trader Call Today, 2) Warsh Confirmation Hearing Review, 3) 2 Mins Read on Supply Chain Disruptions, 4) UK CPI Recap and 5) US Equity Outlook
- May 12GS MORNING 1) Jan Hatzius Latest Thoughts, 2) US CPI Preview, 3) Trump-Xi Meeting What to Watch, and 4) GBP Quick Bullets
- May 18GS MORNING 1) Thoughts From the Floor, 2) Dom Wilson’s Latest, 3) Hedging UK Tails, 4) European Views and 5) Week Ahead Previews
- Jun 10GS MORNING - adam crook
- Jun 11GS MORNING - adam crook
- Jun 17GS MORNING - Adam Crook
- Jun 18GS MORNING - Adam Crook
- Jul 15GS MORNING
- Jul 28GS MORNING 1) Oil Tracker, 2) USDJPY Topside, 3) Korea Update, 4) Just The Charts and 5) AUD CPI Preview
- Aug 4GS MORNING 1) JPY and Intervention Call Takeaways 2) FX Correlation Themes 3) Jan Hatzius’ Latest 4) Weekend Macro Call Key Quotes and 5) China Energy Deman
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Core CPI MoM: 0.22 % (2026-07) · Source: Department of Labor
- Core PCE MoM Forecast: 0.23 % (2026-07) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- PBoC Overnight Reverse Repo Daily Cap: 600 RMB bn (2026-08-14 to 2026-08-19) · Source: PBoC
- Average Monthly Importer Hedging in India: 67 USD bn (FY27 YTD) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
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