Report published September 1, 2026
Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update: Above-Potential DM Activity (September 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Dong, Megan Peters
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs' weekly economic indicators update shows the Developed Markets Current Activity Indicator running above potential at 2.6% for July, while the Global CAI stands at 3.4%. Global financial conditions ex-Russia tightened modestly by 1 bp over the prior week driven by short rates and FX.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Developed Markets Current Activity Indicator (DM CAI) has run notably above-potential in 2026, standing at 2.6% annualized for preliminary July data.
- 2.The Global ex Russia Financial Conditions Index (FCI) tightened slightly by 1 basis point over the past week, driven mainly by short rates and exchange rates.
- 3.Global CAI stood at +3.4% mom annualized in July (+0.3pp weekly change), led by Emerging Markets at +4.4% (India at +7.7%, China at +4.7%) and the US at +3.5%.
Table of Contents
- Key FCI and Growth Charts
- Key Wage and Price Inflation Charts
- Detailed Indicators Update
- Financial Conditions Index (FCI)
- FCI Impulses
- Current Activity Indicator (CAI)
- MAP
- Trimmed Core Inflation
- Inflation Surprise Index
- Wage Trackers
- Top-Down Fiscal Impulses
- Output Gaps
- GS Forecasts vs. Consensus
- Methodology Notes for GS Proprietary Economic Indicators
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: Our DM Current Activity Indicator (CAI) Has Run Notably Above-Potential This Year and Currently Stands at 2.6% (July Preliminary CAI)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets CAI (Preliminary) | 2.6% | Annualized month-over-month growth rate for developed markets |
| Global CAI | 3.4% | Annualized month-over-month growth rate for the global aggregate |
| US Spot CAI | 3.5% | Annualized month-over-month growth rate for the US |
| Global ex Russia FCI Weekly Change | 1 bps | Driven primarily by short rates and exchange rates |
Reports in this series
GS Economic Indicators Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
Part of the GS Economic Indicators Update series — view all 7 editions
Looking for the latest edition? USA GS Economic Indicators Update(21) (Sep 8, 2026)
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Developed Markets CAI (Preliminary): 2.6 % (July 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Global CAI: 3.4 % (July 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- US Spot CAI: 3.5 % (July 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Global ex Russia FCI Weekly Change: 1 bps (August/September 2026 (prior week)) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
European Week Ahead
September 14, 2026
BoE Preview: Holding in September, Hiking in November
September 14, 2026
Asia Leaders Conference Takeaways: TECO: Modular Data Center in Expansion, Driving Deployment and Efficiency
September 14, 2026
China: Market Expectations for the Upcoming Trump-Xi Meeting: Signals from Our Investor Survey
September 14, 2026
China: What Do Local Clients Think About the Economy?
September 14, 2026