Report published September 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs: GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator: Conventional Memory and HBM ASP Expectations Largely Reset and Starting to Recover
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs' DRAM sentiment indicator for September 2026 maintained a moderately positive stance, driven by robust server ODM revenue (+130% yoy) and all-time high Korean DRAM exports (+412% yoy). Conventional memory spot prices continue to expand their premium over contract prices while HBM pricing expectations show signs of recovery.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The GS DRAM sentiment indicator for September 2026 points in a moderately positive direction, identical to August.
- 2.DDR5 and DDR4 spot pricing continued their upward momentum in September, trading at +20% and +44% premiums over contract prices, respectively.
- 3.Server ODM monthly revenue accelerated to a record +130% yoy in August fueled by AI server shipments, while Korea DRAM exports surged +412% yoy to an all-time high.
Table of Contents
- Details of data points
- Components of GS DRAM sentiment indicator
- Price Target Risks and Methodology - Samsung Electronics
- Price Target Risks and Methodology - SK Hynix Inc.
Report data
Exhibit 1: GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Server ODM Monthly Revenue Growth | 130% | Server ODM monthly revenue reached record high growth driven by rack-level AI servers and ASIC AI servers. |
| Korea Monthly DRAM Export Revenue Growth | 412% | Reached an all-time high in DRAM export value since tracking began in 2008. |
| DDR4 Spot Price Premium over Contract Price | 44% | DDR4 pricing rose +5% mom in September and traded at a premium to contract pricing. |
| DDR5 Spot Price Premium over Contract Price | 20% | DDR5 spot price grew +7% mom in September. |
| China Smartphone Shipment Growth | -17% | Ending 2 consecutive months of positive yoy growth, weighed down by rising memory prices. |
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