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Report published September 30, 2026

Goldman Sachs: GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator: Conventional Memory and HBM ASP Expectations Largely Reset and Starting to Recover

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

Goldman Sachs' DRAM sentiment indicator for September 2026 maintained a moderately positive stance, driven by robust server ODM revenue (+130% yoy) and all-time high Korean DRAM exports (+412% yoy). Conventional memory spot prices continue to expand their premium over contract prices while HBM pricing expectations show signs of recovery.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The GS DRAM sentiment indicator for September 2026 points in a moderately positive direction, identical to August.
  • 2.DDR5 and DDR4 spot pricing continued their upward momentum in September, trading at +20% and +44% premiums over contract prices, respectively.
  • 3.Server ODM monthly revenue accelerated to a record +130% yoy in August fueled by AI server shipments, while Korea DRAM exports surged +412% yoy to an all-time high.

Table of Contents

  • Details of data points
  • Components of GS DRAM sentiment indicator
  • Price Target Risks and Methodology - Samsung Electronics
  • Price Target Risks and Methodology - SK Hynix Inc.

Report data

Exhibit 1: GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator

MetricEstimateContext
Taiwan Server ODM Monthly Revenue Growth130%Server ODM monthly revenue reached record high growth driven by rack-level AI servers and ASIC AI servers.
Korea Monthly DRAM Export Revenue Growth412%Reached an all-time high in DRAM export value since tracking began in 2008.
DDR4 Spot Price Premium over Contract Price44%DDR4 pricing rose +5% mom in September and traded at a premium to contract pricing.
DDR5 Spot Price Premium over Contract Price20%DDR5 spot price grew +7% mom in September.
China Smartphone Shipment Growth-17%Ending 2 consecutive months of positive yoy growth, weighed down by rising memory prices.
Source: Company data; TRASS / MOTIE; DRAMeXchange; CAICT. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.

Part of the GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator series — view all 3 editions

  1. Aug 31GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator Aug
  2. Aug 31GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator Aug(1)

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