Report published August 14, 2026
Gold and Central Banks: Custody Diversification, Buying Trends, and Goldman Sachs' $4,900 Target
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Lina Thomas, Daan Struyven
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Reserve managers are diversifying their offshore gold custody locations to balance geopolitical freezing risks against domestic operational costs. Goldman Sachs reaffirms its end-2026 gold forecast of $4,900/toz, supported by resilient central bank buying and rebounding investor demand.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Central banks are increasingly diversifying where they store gold abroad rather than outright repatriating, balancing foreign legal risks against domestic physical and political risks.
- 2.Goldman Sachs' nowcast estimates central bank purchases accelerated to 57 tonnes in June, or 100 tonnes/month on a 3-month seasonally adjusted basis, driven largely by China.
- 3.Goldman Sachs maintains its end-2026 gold price forecast of $4,900/toz, anchored by structural reserve diversification from emerging market central banks and recovering investor demand.
Table of Contents
- Precious Comment: Gold and Central Banks: Storage Dilemma; Buying Trend Picks Up
- Our GS Nowcast Estimates Central Bank Gold Purchases of 57 Tonnes in June (100 Tonnes/Month On a 3-Month Seasonally Adjusted Basis vs. a Pre-2022 Average of 17 Tonnes)
- Gold and Central Banks: Storage Dilemma; Buying Trend Picks Up
- Q1. Why do central banks store gold at the Bank of England and the New York Fed?
- Q2. If gold held abroad is not free of political risk, why do central banks appear to prefer diversification across foreign jurisdictions over repatriation?
- Q3. What are the most common alternatives?
- Q4. What is the June reading of the GS central bank gold nowcast? Does the overseas diversification of central bank gold holdings affect our central bank nowcast?
- Q5. What is your outlook for the gold price?
- Appendix
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Our GS Nowcast Estimates Central Bank Gold Purchases of 57 Tonnes in June (100 Tonnes/Month On a 3-Month Seasonally Adjusted Basis vs. a Pre-2022 Average of 17 Tonnes)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| End-2026 Gold Price Forecast | 4900.0 USD/toz | Goldman Sachs forecast anchor driven by EM central bank reserve diversification. |
| Spot Gold Price | 4400.0 USD/toz | Rallied 10% since mid-July bottom to nearly $4,400. |
| June Central Bank Gold Purchases (GS Nowcast) | 57.0 tonnes | Versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes per month. |
| China Central Bank Gold Purchases | 40.0 tonnes | China was the largest identifiable buyer in June. |
| Bank of England Reserve Manager Custody Preference Share | 57.0% | Percentage of surveyed central bank reserve managers vaulting gold at the Bank of England. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- End-2026 Gold Price Forecast: 4900.0 USD/toz (End-2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Spot Gold Price: 4400.0 USD/toz (Mid-August 2026) · Source: Bloomberg
- June Central Bank Gold Purchases (GS Nowcast): 57.0 tonnes (June 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- China Central Bank Gold Purchases: 40.0 tonnes (June 2026) · Source: PBOC
- Bank of England Reserve Manager Custody Preference Share: 57.0 % (2026) · Source: World Gold Council
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