Goldman Sachs
February 13, 2026
Global Rates Trader
Market ReportDerivativesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsOther
Global rates volatility has risen following equity market spillovers, particularly in the US, while regional dynamics in Europe and Japan remain focused on fiscal expansion and central bank policy implementation.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Equity market volatility has spilled into US rates despite stable macroeconomic data, though lower volatility is expected to return eventually.
- 2.The Gilt risk premium remains sticky due to political uncertainty, but the case for long Gilts is supported by falling inflation and expected BoE cuts.
- 3.The NOK-SEK 10y yield spread has reached extreme levels following inflation surprises; authors recommend receiving 10y NOK vs SEK.
Table of Contents
- United States and Canada
- Europe
- Japan
- Forecasts
- Central Bank Dashboard
- Positioning and Flows Monitor
- Carry/Rolldown Monitor
- Treasury Supply Monitor
- GS Term Premium Decomposition
- 2026 Trade Recommendations
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Authors
George ColeWilliam MarshallBill ZuSimon Freycenet
Securities
US 10-Year TreasuryUK 10-Year GiltGerman 10-Year Bund (DEM)10y Japanese Government Bond (JGB)NOK-SEK 10y
Themes
Fiscal Expansion and Term PremiumMacro Volatility and Asset SpilloversMonetary Policy Execution Risk
Regions
GlobalNorth AmericaEuropeUnited StatesCanadaUnited Kingdom