Goldman Sachs FX Strategy: AI Haves vs. Have-Nots Drive Divergence in Asian Currencies

Asian FX is experiencing wide divergence driven by the global AI investment boom, where tech-exporting currencies like KRW, TWD, SGD, and MYR outperform peers. Goldman Sachs remains bullish on KRW, TWD, MYR, and CNY while staying cautious on IDR, INR, and PHP.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Exposure to the AI and tech investment cycle is driving sharp divergence across Asian currencies, with tech-exporting economies (KRW, TWD, SGD, MYR) outperforming less tech-exposed, higher-yielding peers (IDR, PHP, INR).
• 2.KRW has turned around to become the best-performing regional currency year-to-date as equity outflows moderate and Korea's record current account surplus (forecast at $400bn / 19% of GDP in 2026) reasserts itself.
• 3.Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the CNY, revising USD/CNY targets down to 6.70 (3M), 6.60 (6M), and 6.40 (12M) supported by a massive cumulative $1.3tn ex-gold trade surplus and undervaluation.

Table of Contents

• AI Haves vs. Have-Nots Drive Divergence in Asian FX
• TRADE IDEAS
• Best Trade Ideas Across Assets
• Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Exhibit 1: Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia are the most tech-oriented economies in Asia

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