Report published September 28, 2026

Global Market Views: More Paths to Relief – Goldman Sachs Macro Strategy

Goldman Sachs · September 28, 2026

While rates, energy prices, and AI valuation risks persist, their heavy reflection in current market pricing has improved the risk-reward skew across risky assets. With growth momentum holding up, low implied volatility allows investors to structure protected equity upside and rate relief hedges.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Macro risks from rates, energy prices, and AI derating are now better reflected in asset pricing, shifting asymmetry toward a more constructive stance with clear paths to relief.
2.Central bank tightening is aggressively priced (nearly 5 hikes for Fed/ECB and over 4 for BOE), but front-end rate hikes may be front-loaded while forward curve hedges (e.g., 2y1y OIS) offer relief potential.
3.Cyclical momentum remains surprisingly resilient, supported by fiscal policy and capex in AI, defense, and energy architecture, tracking ~3% GDP growth in the US for Q3.

1. Rates, energy and AI: same risks, better priced.
2. Cyclical momentum still holding up.
3. Hikes everywhere, but more priced.
4. Easier to see paths to some rate relief from current levels.
5. A better short-term runway for equities, despite the risks.
6. Midterms move into view.
7. Dollar drift.
8. EM: A pivotal poll in Brazil.
9. Tails to own.
10. Protected upside.

Report data

Exhibit 11: A high nominal growth environment has led to a tightening shock, so policy relief is the clearest path to upside

Metric	Estimate	Context
Market priced tightening cycle size	100+ bp	Priced cumulative tightening cycles across the US, UK, and Europe driven by diesel and European gas gains.
US Third Quarter GDP Tracking Growth	~3%	Growth momentum holding up well across DM and EM economies.
Market priced cumulative rate hikes	close to 5 hikes	Cumulative tightening cycles priced for the ECB and Fed.
Market priced cumulative rate hikes (BOE)	>4 hikes	Cumulative tightening cycle priced for the Bank of England.