Report published August 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Global Economics Wrap-Up: US-Canada Tariffs, Central Bank Policy, and Inflation Dynamics
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Joseph Briggs, Andrew Tilton, Katya Vashkinskaya, Jessica Rindels, Sarah Dong
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs reviews global macro developments for late August 2026, highlighting escalating US-Canada trade tensions, hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chair Warsh, and an updated call for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Across regions, core inflation remains somewhat sticky, but central banks outside Japan are largely expected to maintain current policy rates through year-end.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Escalating US-Canada trade tensions and bilateral 50% tariff implementations are projected to create a 0.3pp GDP growth drag and 0.3pp inflation boost for Canada, keeping the Bank of Canada on hold.
- 2.Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole debut emphasizing that underlying inflation remains concerning, though Goldman Sachs still expects the FOMC to remain on hold in September.
- 3.Goldman Sachs revised its Bank of Japan forecast to expect a rate hike in September 2026, followed by further hikes in January and July 2027 to reach a 1.75% policy rate.
Table of Contents
- Global Economics
- US Economics
- Europe Economics
- Asia/EM Economics
- GDP Forecast Tracker: GS vs. Consensus
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
GDP Forecast Tracker: GS vs. Consensus
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Tariff rate on Canadian exports to US | 50.0% | US implemented 50% tariffs on US$20bn Canadian exports to the US |
| Canadian GDP Growth Impact from Tariffs | -0.3 percentage points | Headwind to Canadian GDP growth implied by GS rules of thumb from recent tariffs |
| Bank of Japan Terminal Policy Rate Forecast | 1.75% | BOJ expected to hike in September 2026, January 2027, and July 2027 |
| Euro Area Headline HICP Inflation Forecast | 3.35 % yoy | Revised from 3.36% yoy previously following flash prints from France, Spain, and Belgium |
| World Real GDP Growth (GS Forecast) | 2.5% | World annual average real GDP growth forecast for 2026 (matching consensus) |
Reports in this series
Global Economics Wrap-Up is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Part of the Global Economics Wrap-Up series — view all 9 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Tariff rate on Canadian exports to US: 50.0 % (August 22, 2026)
- Canadian GDP Growth Impact from Tariffs: -0.3 percentage points (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Bank of Japan Terminal Policy Rate Forecast: 1.75 % (July 2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Euro Area Headline HICP Inflation Forecast: 3.35 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- World Real GDP Growth (GS Forecast): 2.5 % (2026) · Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
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