Report published September 25, 2026

German Pension Reform: We See Limited Impact for the Insurers – Goldman Sachs Equity Research

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

Germany is set to replace its state-subsidised Riester pension scheme with the Altersvorsorgedepot (AVD) from January 2027, unlocking a €139bn–€184bn five-year asset opportunity. Goldman Sachs concludes the reform will have a negligible group earnings impact (+/-0.5% EPS in Year 5) on covered insurers due to slow CSM profit release and diversified business profiles.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Germany will replace the state-subsidised Riester private pension scheme with Altersvorsorgedepot (AVD) from January 2027, removing mandatory 100% capital guarantees to support equity investment and capping Standard Account costs at 1.0% p.a.
2.The five-year AVD market opportunity is estimated at €139bn to €184bn, composed of €56bn–€72bn in transferred existing Riester assets and €83bn–€112bn in new AVD contributions.
3.The earnings impact on covered European insurers (Allianz, Generali, Munich Re, Talanx, AXA) is limited to +/-0.5% in Year 5 under both Bull and Bear scenarios, and -0.2% to -1.2% in a Severe downside scenario.

German Pension Reform Overview: Riester to Be Replaced by AVD
German pension reform summary
Pillar 3 Pension Reform - Riester to Be Replaced by AVD
We estimate that the AVD market opportunity could be c.€139bn to €184bn by year 5
Insurers provide two-thirds of current Riester contracts
Allianz and Generali have the highest market shares
We estimate that c.€56bn to €72bn of the current €225bn Riester assets could transfer to the AVD framework
We estimate c.€83bn to €112bn of new AVD assets / contributions over five years
Insurers have diverging AVD strategies
Product mix matters for competitive dynamics and margins
Bull and Bear Scenario Summary
Earnings transmission mechanism
A Bull Scenario for the Insurers
Our Bull scenario shows limited EPS upside across our coverage
A Bear scenario for the Insurers
Our Bear scenario also shows limited EPS upside across our coverage
A Severe downside scenario
Bull scenario company estimates
Bear scenario company estimates
Illustrative CSM operating variance and new business approach

Report data

Exhibit 15: Our Bull and Bear scenarios show limited EPS impact

Metric	Estimate	Context
Five-year AVD addressable market size	139-184 €bn	Estimated total AVD market size prior to market appreciation across 4 scenarios.
Existing Riester asset base	225 €bn	Industry Riester asset pool across 14.7mn outstanding contracts.
Insurer share of Riester contracts	66%	Insurers represent 9.7mn of the 14.7mn contracts outstanding.
Riester assets estimated to transfer to AVD	56-72 €bn	Expected asset transfers from existing Riester contracts into AVD products over 5 years.
New AVD saver contributions	83-112 €bn	Estimated cumulative contributions from new AVD savers and transferred savers over 5 years.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; BMAS / Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.