Report published September 8, 2026

South Africa Q2 2026 GDP Declines in Downside Surprise: Goldman Sachs Economics Report

Goldman Sachs · September 8, 2026

South Africa's Q2 2026 GDP contracted by -0.2% qoq, missing consensus and SARB forecasts, dragged down by a sharp rebound in imports. Consequently, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 growth forecast from +1.6% yoy to +1.2% yoy and expects the SARB to keep policy rates on hold in September.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.South Africa's Q2 2026 GDP contracted by -0.2% qoq, missing consensus expectations of -0.1% qoq and GS/SARB forecasts of +0.1% qoq.
2.The GDP decline was primarily driven by net exports as import growth surged to +4.9% qoq, heavily outpacing a +0.9% qoq export rise.
3.Goldman Sachs mechanically revised its full-year 2026 South Africa GDP growth forecast down to +1.2% yoy from +1.6% yoy.

Bottom Line
Key Numbers for 2026Q2 (seasonally adjusted, non-annualised terms)
Main Points

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
South Africa GDP Growth	-0.2 % qoq	Declined from +0.4% qoq in 2026Q1, surprising consensus (-0.1%) and GS/SARB (+0.1%)
Household Consumption Growth	0.4 % qoq	Rose from +0.0% qoq in 2026Q1
Fixed Investment Growth	-0.2 % qoq	Contracted at a slower pace from -1.0% qoq in 2026Q1
Exports Growth	0.9 % qoq	Accelerated from +0.2% qoq in 2026Q1
Imports Growth	4.9 % qoq	Rebounded sharply from -2.2% qoq in 2026Q1