Goldman Sachs G10 Inflation Monitor: Monthly Trimmed Core Ticks Up Outside of Japan

Goldman Sachs' July G10 Inflation Monitor shows sequential trimmed core inflation ticking up across the US, UK, Euro area, and Canada, while declining in Japan. July core inflation surprised to the upside across most DMs, driven by services strength and specific component price pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.July sequential trimmed core inflation accelerated across the UK (4.1%), US (2.2%), Euro area (2.1%), and Canada (2.1%), but declined in Japan (1.8%).
• 2.July year-over-year core inflation delivered upside surprises across the US, Euro area, UK, and Canada, while matching expectations in Japan.
• 3.Goldman Sachs forecasts Q4/Q4 core inflation by end-2026 to reach 2.9% in the UK, 2.6% in the Euro area, 2.5% in Japan, 2.2% in Canada, and slow to 3.0% for US core PCE.

Table of Contents

• GS Trimmed Core Inflation
• Breadth of Inflation
• Category-level trends
• Inflation surprises
• GS forecasts
• GS Harmonized Core
• Category Trends
• Appendix
• The Global Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Exhibit 1: On a Monthly Annualized Basis, Our GS Trimmed Core Inflation Ticked Up Outside of Japan (July 2026 Underlying Inflation Measures)

Reports in this series

G10 Inflation Monitor is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the G10 Inflation Monitor series — view all 3 editions

1. Jun 30G10 Inflation Monitor Inflation Breadth Moderates in the UK and Canada
2. Jul 30G10 Inflation Monitor Core Inflation Surprises to the Downside Outside of the UK

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