Report published August 27, 2026
Friday's Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Payrolls: No Longer Negative
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Ronnie Walker, Jan Hatzius, Jessica Rindels, David Mericle, Elsie Peng, Abhay Duggirala, Alec Phillips, Pierfrancesco Mei
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs expects the upcoming preliminary benchmark revision to US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 to be positive by 50-450k, marking the first upward revision since 2022. This upward revision reflects easing distortions from unauthorized worker undercounting in QCEW data amid slowed immigration.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs estimates an upward preliminary benchmark revision of 50-450k for March 2026 nonfarm payrolls (equivalent to +5k to +40k/month over April 2025–March 2026).
- 2.If realized, this would mark the first upward annual payroll benchmark revision since 2022, driven partly by a sharp slowdown in immigration reducing previous unauthorized worker undercounting issues in QCEW data.
- 3.Preliminary benchmark estimates tend to underestimate final revisions, having understated them in each of the past six years by approximately 100k on average due to subsequent upward revisions to source QCEW data.
Table of Contents
- US Daily: Friday’s Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Payrolls: No Longer Negative
- Friday's Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Payrolls: No Longer Negative
- The US Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: We Suspect the Preliminary Estimate of the Benchmark Revision Will Show the First Upward Revision Since 2022
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary Benchmark Revision Estimate to March 2026 Payrolls | 50k to 450k jobs | Expected preliminary estimate of benchmark revision to level of March 2026 nonfarm payrolls |
| Monthly Payroll Growth Upward Revision | 5k to 40k jobs/month | Implied monthly revision to nonfarm payroll gains across the benchmark window |
| Revised Average Monthly Payroll Pace | 30k to 65k jobs/month | Projected post-revision monthly payroll pace compared to currently reported ~25k/month |
| Average Preliminary Benchmark Revision Underestimation | 100k jobs | Average amount by which preliminary benchmark estimates have been below final revisions |
| Birth-Death Model Share of Previous Year's Benchmark Revision | 14%% | Share of the prior year's large revision attributable to birth-death miscalibration vs residual reporting errors |
Reports in this series
US Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 27, 2026.
Part of the US Daily series — view all 17 editions
Looking for the latest edition? US Daily August CPI Preview (Sep 8, 2026)
- Jun 6US Daily No Fed Cuts This Year
- Jun 9US Daily May CPI Preview
- Jun 15US Daily: Are College Students Adjusting to AI-Driven Labor Market Shifts
- Jun 15US Daily: Are College Students Adjusting to AI-Driven Labor Market Shifts
- Jul 23US Daily Would Hikes Help
- Jul 24US Daily What the Rebound in Oil Prices Means for Upcoming Inflation Prints
- Jul 29US Daily Lowering Our Q2 GDP Growth Forecast
- Jul 29US Daily FOMC Recap No Hike and No Guidance
- Aug 3US Daily Less Information, More Noise
- Aug 6US Daily July Payrolls Preview(1)(1)
- Aug 10US Daily July CPI Preview
- Aug 25GS Jackson Hole Preview What Will Warsh Say
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Preliminary Benchmark Revision Estimate to March 2026 Payrolls: 50k to 450k jobs (March 2026) · Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Monthly Payroll Growth Upward Revision: 5k to 40k jobs/month (April 2025–March 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Revised Average Monthly Payroll Pace: 30k to 65k jobs/month (April 2025–March 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Average Preliminary Benchmark Revision Underestimation: 100k jobs (Past 6 years) · Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Birth-Death Model Share of Previous Year's Benchmark Revision: 14% % (Previous year benchmark revision) · Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc.: First Take: 2Q Earnings Beat; FY26 EPS Guidance Raised
September 9, 2026
Global Markets Daily: AI Funding Needs and Strong Demand Fuel Record Convertible Supply
September 9, 2026
Taiwan: Stronger-Than-Expected Rebound in August Exports, Led by Tech
September 9, 2026
Westgold Resources: Refreshed 3-Year Outlook
September 9, 2026
Japan: September Reuters Tankan: Semiconductor-Related Demand Contributes to Improvement in Manufacturers' and Non-Manufacturers'
September 9, 2026