Report published September 1, 2026
France Macroeconomic Outlook: Fiscal Deficit Slippage, Subdued Growth, and 2027 Election Dynamics
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alexandre Stott (Lead Author), Sven Jari Stehn (Contributor), Filippo Taddei (Contributor), James Moberly (Contributor), Niklas Garnadt (Contributor), Katya Vashkinskaya (Contributor), Giovanni Pierdomenico (Contributor)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs forecasts French GDP growth to remain subdued at 0.4% in 2026 and raises its deficit forecast to 5.3% of GDP for both 2026 and 2027, implying no fiscal consolidation. Political uncertainty remains high ahead of the 2027 elections, keeping French 10-year OAT spreads under widening pressure.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs forecasts subdued French GDP growth of 0.1% q/q in Q3 and Q4, resulting in a 2026 annual average of 0.4%, below consensus (0.6%), Banque de France (0.5%), and the government (0.7%).
- 2.French budget deficit forecasts are raised by 0.3pp to 5.3% of GDP for 2026 and by 0.5pp to 5.3% for 2027, pointing to zero deficit reduction over the two-year period.
- 3.The firm's statistical presidential election model gives Marine Le Pen a 68% probability of winning the 2027 presidency, while pointing to a high probability of a continued hung Parliament.
Table of Contents
- France—No Deficit Reduction This Year and Next
- Growth to Remain Subdued
- No Deficit Reduction This Year and Next
- Le Pen in the Lead for President
- European Economics Team
Report data
Exhibit 3: We Are Raising Our Deficit Forecast to 5.3% of GDP in 2026 and 2027
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| French GDP Growth | 0.4% | Annual average forecast for 2026, assuming 0.1% growth in Q3 and Q4. |
| French Unemployment Rate | 8.3% | Rose more than 2pp above 2023 lows, climbing above structural rate estimates. |
| French Fiscal Deficit to GDP | 5.3 % of GDP | Deficit forecast raised from 5.0% to 5.3% as official targets become out of reach. |
| French Fiscal Deficit to GDP | 5.3 % of GDP | Deficit forecast raised by 0.5pp to 5.3% for 2027. |
| Marine Le Pen Win Probability (Presidential Model) | 68% | Poll-based statistical model probability for winning the 2027 French presidential election. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- French GDP Growth: 0.4 % (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- French Unemployment Rate: 8.3 % (Q2 2026) · Source: Haver Analytics, Banque de France
- French Fiscal Deficit to GDP: 5.3 % of GDP (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- French Fiscal Deficit to GDP: 5.3 % of GDP (2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Marine Le Pen Win Probability (Presidential Model): 68 % (2027) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
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