France: An Increasingly Challenging Debt Trajectory – Goldman Sachs Economics Research

Key Takeaways

• 1.France's debt trajectory is deteriorating due to persistent deficits above 5% of GDP and upward revisions in borrowing costs, with 10-year OAT yields now projected near 4% over the medium term.
• 2.To stabilize its public debt-to-GDP ratio, France will need to run a 1% primary surplus—a benchmark it has achieved the fewest times among major developed economies since 1980.
• 3.Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for French public debt to 125% of GDP by the start of the next decade, with stochastic simulations assigning a 12% probability that France's debt surpasses Italy's (forecast at 135%).

Table of Contents

• France—An Increasingly Challenging Debt Trajectory

Report data

Exhibit 2: We Estimate That France Will Require a 1% Primary Surplus to Stabilise Public Debt in the Medium-Term

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European Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.

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