Food-at-Home Inflation Update

January Food-at-home CPI slowed to 2.1%, with leading indicators suggesting a moderating environment for 2026. The CPI-PPI spread turned positive, signaling potential relief for grocer margins.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Food-at-home (FAH) CPI decelerated to +2.1% in January from +2.4% in December, falling below the long-term average of +2.5%.
• 2.Relative value remains in favor of grocery stores over restaurants, as restaurant inflation continues to outpace grocery inflation.
• 3.Leading indicators, including the S&P GSCI Ag & Livestock Index and the GS Food COGS Index, suggest FAH inflation will remain stable or slightly moderate in 2026.

Table of Contents

• Food-at-home inflation decelerated
• Relative value remained in favor of Grocery over Restaurants
• Leading indicators suggest stable to slightly moderating FAH inflation
• CPI-PPI spread shifted positive in January
• Disclosure Appendix

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