Report published September 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs Fixed Income Outlook 4Q 2026: Markets, Views, and Positioning

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

GSAM's 4Q 2026 Fixed Income Outlook highlights that hawkish central bank pivots, rising energy prices, and massive AI capex are driving global government bond yields to multi-decade highs. The team advises capturing attractive real carry via securitized credit, selective high yield, and active cross-market curve positioning while staying cautious on tight investment-grade corporate spreads.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Tightening cycles have re-emerged across major central banks including the US and Eurozone amid Middle East tensions, high fiscal deficits, surging energy prices, and hawkish Fed leadership.
2.Investors should utilize curve positioning rather than directional duration; Japanese rates are expected to rise further, while UK gilts may offer relief if energy prices retreat.
3.In credit and spread sectors, high real yields make carry attractive; an up-in-quality bias is recommended, favoring high yield, securitized credit, and select emerging markets over tight investment-grade corporates.

Markets, Views, and Positioning
What’s Changed
What This Means for Investors
Key Themes for the Upcoming Quarter
Actively Navigating the Rising Rate Environment
The Next Stage for AI Financing and Credit Markets
Key Investment Ideas
Sector Allocation: Key Exposures and Quarterly Changes

Report data

Annual hyperscaler capex could break $1.4 trillion by 2029 — as of September 23, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Hyperscaler Capex Forecast	1.4 trillion USD	Annual hyperscaler capital expenditures expected to break through $1.4 trillion by 2029 as AI buildout continues.

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Access the full report

And others from the leading tier 1 banks.

Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.

Create account Sign in

Authors / Editors

Kay Haigh · Head and CIO of Fixed Income and Liquidity SolutionsSylvia Yeh · Global Head of Client Portfolio Management, Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions