Report published September 24, 2026
Goldman Sachs: First Step Towards Balance Sheet Optimization Natureza Project Funding (CMPC & Smurfit Westrock)
Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026
CMPC has agreed to sell its Chilean corrugated board business to Smurfit Westrock for $420M, representing an important initial de-leveraging step ahead of its potential $4.5B Natureza pulp mill capex in Brazil. Goldman Sachs reiterates a Neutral rating on CMPC and a Buy rating on Smurfit Westrock.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.CMPC agreed to sell its Chilean containerboard and corrugated packaging business to Smurfit Westrock for $420M (17% of CMPC's market cap, 5% of consolidated EBITDA).
- 2.The sale covers approximately 10% of the anticipated $4.5B capex for CMPC's Natureza pulp project in Brazil and reduces Net debt/EBITDA by 0.3x.
- 3.For Smurfit Westrock, the transaction provides strategic inorganic entry into high-margin Latin America at an attractive post-synergy EV/EBITDA below 6x, with minimal leverage impact.
Table of Contents
- First Step Towards Balance Sheet Optimization/Natureza Project Funding
- CMPC sells Chilean corrugated board business for $420M (17% of market cap).
- Valuation and Key risks
- CMPC
- Smurfit Westrock
- The key downside risks to our thesis and price target include:
Report data
Target price history table(s) - Empresas CMPC SA (CMPC.SN)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction Enterprise Value | 420 USD million | Agreed EV for CMPC's Chilean containerboard and corrugated packaging business |
| EV/EBITDA Transaction Multiple | 7.0x–7.6x multiple | Multiple based on the unit's annualized EBITDA generation of $55–60M |
| Natureza Project Capex | 4.5 USD billion | Expected capex for CMPC's proposed 2.5mtpa pulp mill in Brazil |
| CMPC Net Debt/EBITDA Reduction | -0.3 x | Estimated de-leveraging impact from the $420M asset sale (from ~4.2x in 2Q26) |
| Smurfit Westrock 12-Month Price Target | 53.00 USD | Based on 9.0x EV/DACF multiple for 2027/28E |
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