Report published September 30, 2026

First Quantum Minerals: Government's Commission Recommends a Restart of Cobre Panama Mine – Goldman Sachs Analysis

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

Panama's governmental commission has recommended authorizing negotiations with First Quantum to restart the Cobre Panama mine under an orderly closure model spanning 25–33 years. Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating and C$48.00 price target, noting the market's sharp selloff misunderstood the multi-decade operational timeline.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Panama's government commission recommended authorizing formal negotiations to restart the Cobre Panama mine under an orderly, self-financed closure framework spanning 25–33 years.
2.The market reaction (stock halted and down >30%) likely misinterpreted the 'orderly closure' headlines by missing the multi-decade operating horizon.
3.An immediate physical closure would impose an unsustainable financial burden on Panama, costing $2.6–3.4B over 17–19 years (up to 59.8% of the annual education budget).

Valuation and Key Risks

Report data

Exhibit 2: Premises from the old regime vs. what should be considered for a new regime — as of September 29, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
12-month Price Target	48.00 CAD	Maintained price target for First Quantum Minerals
Share Price Implied Stake of Cobre Panama	40%	Estimated Cobre Panama valuation priced into current FM share price
Physical Mine Closure Cost Estimate	2.6-3.4 USD billion	Estimated cost to Panama if the mine were closed immediately
Environmental Audit Score	88/100 score	Overall environmental audit rating conducted by SGS Panamá Control Services
Share of EBITDA from Zambia	100%	Concentration of EBITDA generated from Zambian assets while Cobre Panama is halted

Source: Goldman Sachs Research; Ministry of Commerce and Industries of Panama; SGS Panamá Control Services. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.