Report published September 29, 2026

Euro Area: Spanish Inflation Above Consensus; Our Area-Wide Tracking Estimates Broadly Unchanged

Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026

Spanish September flash HICP inflation accelerated to 5.0% yoy, slightly above consensus, while Belgian HICP rose to 4.6% yoy. Goldman Sachs maintained its Euro area headline inflation tracking forecast at 3.72% yoy and marginally lowered its core inflation estimate by 2bp to 2.49% yoy.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Spanish flash headline HICP rose to 5.0% yoy in September (above 4.9% consensus), while core HICP printed weaker than expected at 3.5% yoy due to soft core goods pressures.
2.Belgian flash headline HICP rose to 4.6% yoy in September, beating Goldman Sachs' 4.3% expectation, driven by upside surprises in electricity, gas, and package holidays.
3.Goldman Sachs maintains its Euro area September headline HICP forecast at 3.72% yoy while nudging down the Euro area core inflation forecast by 2bp to 2.49% yoy.

KEY NUMBERS:
MAIN POINTS:
Exhibit 1: September HICP Tracking Estimates
Exhibit 2: September HICP Tracking Estimate

Report data

Exhibit 2: September HICP Tracking Estimate

Metric	Estimate	Context
Spanish Headline HICP Inflation	5.0 % yoy	Spanish flash HICP inflation came in line with GS forecast (5.0%) and above consensus (4.9%).
Spanish Core HICP Inflation	3.46 % yoy	Weaker than GS forecast of 3.7% yoy.
Belgian Headline HICP Inflation	4.6 % yoy	Above GS expectations of 4.3% yoy, driven by electricity and gas price increases.
Euro Area All-Items HICP Tracking Estimate (GS Forecast)	3.72 % yoy	Goldman Sachs tracking estimate compared to Bloomberg consensus of 3.6%.
Euro Area Core HICP (Excl. Energy, Food, Alc. & Tobac.) Tracking Estimate (GS Forecast)	2.49 % yoy	GS tracking forecast compared to Bloomberg consensus of 2.5%.