Report published September 30, 2026

Euro Area: German Headline Above Consensus; Our Area-Wide Tracking Estimates Broadly Unchanged

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

German flash headline HICP inflation rose to 3.3% yoy in September, beating consensus expectations of 3.2% but matching Goldman Sachs forecasts. Incorporating this release, Goldman Sachs nudged its Euro area headline inflation forecast up by 1bp to 3.80% yoy while holding core inflation steady at 2.52% yoy.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.German headline HICP inflation came in at 3.3% yoy in September, exceeding consensus expectations of 3.2% yoy but matching Goldman Sachs' forecast.
2.German core CPI inflation printed at 2.4% yoy, leaving the German core HICP estimate unchanged at 2.5% yoy despite sequential core CPI accelerating to 0.24% mom.
3.Goldman Sachs raised its September Euro area headline HICP tracking estimate by 1 bp to 3.80% yoy, while keeping its core inflation forecast unchanged at 2.52% yoy.

KEY NUMBERS:
MAIN POINTS:
Exhibit 1: September HICP Tracking Estimates
Exhibit 2: September HICP Tracking Estimates
European Economics Team

Report data

Exhibit 2: September HICP Tracking Estimates

Metric	Estimate	Context
German Headline HICP Inflation (Flash)	3.30 % yoy	Above consensus expectations of 3.2% yoy and up from 2.9% in August
German Core CPI Inflation	2.43 % yoy	Reported at 2.43% yoy, sideways from 2.44% yoy in August
German Core CPI Inflation (sa)	0.24 % mom	Accelerated from 0.19% mom in August
German Energy CPI Inflation	14.9 % yoy	Increased from 10.5% yoy in August
German Services CPI Inflation	2.7 % yoy	Services CPI inflation declined to 2.7% yoy