Report published August 28, 2026
Euro Area Inflation Tracking: August Flash HICP Analysis by Goldman Sachs
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Katya Vashkinskaya (Lead Author), Sven Jari Stehn (European Economics Team), Filippo Taddei (European Economics Team), Alexandre Stott (European Economics Team), James Moberly (European Economics Team), Niklas Garnadt (European Economics Team), Giovanni Pierdomenico (European Economics Team)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
August flash HICP inflation data showed French inflation in line with expectations at 2.7% yoy, Spanish inflation slightly softer at 4.5% yoy, and Belgian inflation higher at 4.2% yoy. Consequently, Goldman Sachs keeps Euro area August headline tracking broadly steady at 3.35% yoy and trims core tracking by 1bp to 2.54% yoy.
Key Takeaways
- 1.French flash headline HICP inflation in August printed at 2.7% yoy (2.69% unrounded), matching Goldman Sachs expectations and up from 2.4% in July, leading to an upgraded French core HICP estimate of 1.4% yoy.
- 2.Spanish flash HICP inflation printed at 4.5% yoy (4.49% unrounded), slightly below Goldman Sachs and consensus expectations of 4.6% yoy, with core HICP decelerating sequentially to 3.52% yoy due to softer services inflation.
- 3.Belgian flash HICP inflation rose to 4.2% yoy (above GS estimate of 4.05% yoy) on stronger gas and motor fuel prices, while core HICP is downgraded to 3.2% yoy due to weaker core services.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS:
- MAIN POINTS:
- Exhibit 1: August HICP Tracking Estimates
- Exhibit 2: August HICP Tracking Estimate
- European Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 2: August HICP Tracking Estimate
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| French Flash Headline HICP Inflation | 2.7 % yoy | In line with GS expectation of 2.7% yoy, slightly above consensus of 2.6% yoy |
| Spanish Flash Headline HICP Inflation | 4.5 % yoy | Slightly below GS and consensus expectation of 4.6% yoy |
| Belgian Flash Headline HICP Inflation | 4.2 % yoy | Above GS expectation of 4.0% / 4.05% yoy |
| Euro Area Headline HICP Forecast | 3.35 % yoy | Comparison vs Bloomberg consensus of 3.3% yoy and July actual of 2.94% yoy |
| Euro Area Core HICP Forecast (Ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) | 2.54 % yoy | Comparison vs Bloomberg consensus of 2.5% yoy and July actual of 2.48% yoy |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- French Flash Headline HICP Inflation: 2.7 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Spanish Flash Headline HICP Inflation: 4.5 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Belgian Flash Headline HICP Inflation: 4.2 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Euro Area Headline HICP Forecast: 3.35 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg
- Euro Area Core HICP Forecast (Ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco): 2.54 % yoy (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg
Themes
Regions
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