Report published September 30, 2026
Euro Area: French and Italian Inflation Above Expectations, German Regional Data in Line, Upgrading Our Euro Area Tracking Estimates
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
French and Italian flash HICP inflation surprised to the upside in September at 3.4% yoy and 4.1% yoy, respectively, while German regional data pointed to 3.3% yoy. Consequently, Goldman Sachs upgraded its Euro area September headline inflation tracking estimate by 7bp to 3.79% yoy and core inflation by 3bp to 2.52% yoy.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs raised its September Euro area headline HICP inflation tracking forecast by 7bp to 3.79% yoy and core inflation by 3bp to 2.52% yoy.
- 2.French flash HICP inflation accelerated to 3.4% yoy in September (above 3.2% consensus), prompting an upward revision in French core HICP to 1.7% yoy.
- 3.Italian flash HICP surged to 4.1% yoy in September, well above consensus expectations of 3.7%, leading to an upgraded Italian core HICP estimate of 1.9% yoy.
Table of Contents
- Key Numbers
- Main Points
Report data
Exhibit 2: September HICP Tracking Estimates
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| French Flash Headline HICP Inflation | 3.4 % yoy | Above consensus and GS expectation of 3.2% yoy, up from 2.6% yoy in August. |
| Italian Flash Headline HICP Inflation | 4.1 % yoy | Above consensus of 3.7% yoy and GS expectation of 3.8% yoy, up from 3.2% yoy in August. |
| Euro Area Headline HICP Tracker | 3.79 % yoy | Upgraded tracking forecast by Goldman Sachs following national inflation data. |
| Euro Area Core HICP Forecast (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) | 2.52 % yoy | Revised up from previous estimate, driven by French and Italian core pressures. |
| German Headline HICP Tracking Estimate | 3.3 % yoy | Derived from ~89% of regional CPI data, in line with GS and above 3.2% consensus. |
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