Report published September 30, 2026
Euro Area Data Update: Mixed Activity Data in the EMU4 Leaves GDP Tracking Unchanged – Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs maintained its Euro area Q3 GDP growth tracking estimate at +0.22% qoq following mixed economic releases across the EMU4. Country tracking estimates adjusted to +0.06% for Germany, +0.09% for France, +0.08% for Italy, and +0.67% for Spain, with end-2026 headline inflation tracking edging down to +3.93% yoy.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Area-wide Eurozone Q3 GDP tracking remained steady at +0.22% qoq despite mixed activity across the EMU4 economies.
- 2.Country-level tracking adjustments saw modest downgrades in France (+0.09% qoq) and Italy (+0.08% qoq), balanced by an upgrade in Spain (+0.67% qoq) and unchanged growth in Germany (+0.06% qoq).
- 3.End-2026 headline inflation tracking declined 0.05pp to +3.93% yoy, driven by lower commodity prices, while core inflation tracking was unchanged at +2.63% yoy.
Table of Contents
- Activity
- Inflation
- European Economics Team
Report data
Exhibit 1: Area-Wide Tracking Estimate At +0.22%qoq
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Area Q3 GDP Growth Tracking Estimate | 0.22% | Area-wide tracking estimate |
| Germany Q3 GDP Growth Tracking Estimate | 0.06% | German Q3 GDP tracking |
| France Q3 GDP Growth Tracking Estimate | 0.09% | French Q3 GDP tracking vs. +0.12% previously |
| Italy Q3 GDP Growth Tracking Estimate | 0.08% | Italian Q3 GDP tracking vs. +0.12% previously |
| Spain Q3 GDP Growth Tracking Estimate | 0.67% | Spanish Q3 GDP tracking vs. +0.62% previously |
Reports in this series
Euro Area Data Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
Part of the Euro Area Data Update series — view all 36 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Euro Area Data Update Soft August IP Weakens Growth Momentum in Italy (Oct 9, 2026)
- Sep 23Euro Area Data Update Firm Euro Area PMIs and Spanish Trade, Slightly Softer Consumer Confidence
- Sep 24Euro Area Data Update Data Better in Germany, Mixed in France
- Sep 25Euro Area Data Update Firm ifo Details
- Sep 29Euro Area Data Update Area Wide GDP Tracking and Inflation Nearcast Broadly Unchanged After Spanish Data
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