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Report published September 23, 2026

Euro Area Data Update: Firm Euro Area PMIs and Spanish Trade, Slightly Softer Consumer Confidence – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026

Goldman Sachs nudged its Euro area Q3 GDP tracking estimate to +0.21% qoq following upside surprises in German, French, and area-wide September flash PMIs. End-2026 headline and core inflation nearcasts remained broadly unchanged at 3.72% yoy and 2.62% yoy, respectively.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Goldman Sachs' Euro area Q3 GDP tracking estimate rose slightly by 0.01pp to +0.21% qoq, supported by German, French, and Spanish tracking improvements.
  • 2.September flash PMIs beat expectations across core economies, with the area-wide composite PMI climbing 1.1pt to 53.1 (a 41-month high), driven by services activity.
  • 3.Country-level PMIs showed Germany's composite rising 2.0pt to 53.8 (an 11-month high) and France rising to 51.2 (>2-year high), both boosted by strong services rebounds.

Table of Contents

  • Activity
  • Inflation

Report data

Exhibit 1: Area-Wide Tracking Estimate At +0.21%qoq

MetricEstimateContext
Euro Area Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate0.21 % qoqArea-wide tracking estimate ticked up following recent data releases
Spain Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate0.65 % qoqUp from +0.59% previously following improved July goods trade balance
Germany Composite Flash PMI53.8 indexHighest level in 11 months, driven by services activity
France Composite Flash PMI51.2 indexVersus 48.5 in August, reaching highest level in more than two years
Euro Area Composite Flash PMI53.1 indexReached highest level in 41 months, supported by services activity
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; S&P Global Market Intelligence. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

Euro Area Data Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.

Part of the Euro Area Data Update series — view all 36 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Euro Area Data Update Soft August IP Weakens Growth Momentum in Italy (Oct 9, 2026)

  1. Sep 14Euro Area Data Update Limited Data Leaves Area Wide Tracking Unchanged
  2. Sep 15Euro Area Data Update Mixed ZEW Survey for September
  3. Sep 16Euro Area Data Update Area Wide IP Edged Down in July
  4. Sep 18Euro Area Data Update Softer Italian Construction and Services Data in July

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