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Report published October 1, 2026

Euro Area Data Update: Area-Wide Unemployment Rate Stable at 6.4% – Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · October 1, 2026

Goldman Sachs leaves its Euro area Q3 GDP growth tracking estimate unchanged at +0.22% qoq following stable area-wide unemployment at 6.4% and an upward revision in the September manufacturing output PMI to 53.6. Spain continues to drive growth (+0.67% qoq) while end-2026 headline inflation tracking rose slightly to 3.96% yoy.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Goldman Sachs' Euro area Q3 GDP tracking estimate remained unchanged at +0.22% qoq, with Germany at +0.06%, France at +0.09%, Italy at +0.08%, and Spain outperforming at +0.67%.
  • 2.The area-wide unemployment rate remained stable at 6.4%, while country-level labour markets showed divergence, including a 0.2pp rise in Italian unemployment to 6.2%.
  • 3.The September area-wide manufacturing output PMI was revised up by 0.2pt to 53.6, supported by upward revisions in Germany, France, and Spain.

Table of Contents

  • Activity
  • Inflation

Report data

Exhibit 3: Area-Wide Unemployment Rate Stable at 6.4%

MetricEstimateContext
Euro Area Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate0.22 % qoqArea-wide quarterly GDP growth tracking estimate
Euro Area Unemployment Rate6.4%Area-wide harmonised unemployment rate
Euro Area Manufacturing Output PMI53.6 indexRevised up from flash estimate, vs. 53.3 in August
Spain Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate0.67 % qoqCountry tracking estimate for Q3 GDP growth
Germany Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate0.06 % qoqCountry tracking estimate for Q3 GDP growth
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Eurostat; S&P Global Market Intelligence. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

Euro Area Data Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on October 1, 2026.

Part of the Euro Area Data Update series — view all 36 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Euro Area Data Update Soft August IP Weakens Growth Momentum in Italy (Oct 9, 2026)

  1. Sep 24Euro Area Data Update Data Better in Germany, Mixed in France
  2. Sep 25Euro Area Data Update Firm ifo Details
  3. Sep 29Euro Area Data Update Area Wide GDP Tracking and Inflation Nearcast Broadly Unchanged After Spanish Data
  4. Sep 30Euro Area Data Update Mixed Activity Data in the EMU4 Leaves GDP Tracking Unchanged

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