Report published September 1, 2026
Euro Area Core Inflation Drops Below Expectations as Services Cool: Goldman Sachs
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Katya Vashkinskaya (Lead Author), Sven Jari Stehn (European Economics Team), Filippo Taddei (European Economics Team), Alexandre Stott (European Economics Team), James Moberly (European Economics Team), Niklas Garnadt (European Economics Team), Giovanni Pierdomenico (European Economics Team)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Euro area flash core HICP inflation surprised to the downside in August at 2.41% yoy as services inflation declined to 3.05% yoy, while headline inflation rose to 3.26% yoy on higher energy prices. Consequently, Goldman Sachs revised down its medium-term core inflation outlook to 2.4% yoy for 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Euro area flash core HICP inflation surprised to the downside in August, slowing to 2.41% yoy (below GS tracking of 2.49% and consensus of 2.5%), driven primarily by a deceleration in services inflation.
- 2.Headline HICP rose by 0.32pp to 3.26% yoy in August, largely in line with consensus (3.3%), driven higher by energy inflation reaching 14.3% yoy.
- 3.Goldman Sachs lowered its medium-term core inflation path to 2.4% yoy in 2026 (from 2.5%), with a peak at 2.6% yoy in 2027Q1 before declining to 2.0% yoy in 2028Q4.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS:
- MAIN POINTS:
- European Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 2: Core Inflation Below Consensus but Headline Rises Notably on Stronger Energy
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Euro area Core HICP (Flash) | 2.41% | Fell from 2.48% yoy in July; below GS tracking of 2.49% and consensus of 2.5% |
| Euro area Headline HICP (Flash) | 3.26% | Increased by 0.32pp from 2.94% in July; close to consensus 3.3% |
| Euro area Services Inflation | 3.05% | Fell from 3.28% yoy in July |
| Euro area Non-Energy Industrial Goods Inflation | 1.24% | Moved up further to 1.24% yoy |
| Euro area Energy Inflation | 14.3% | Increased to 14.3% yoy |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Euro area Core HICP (Flash): 2.41 % (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
- Euro area Headline HICP (Flash): 3.26 % (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
- Euro area Services Inflation: 3.05 % (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
- Euro area Non-Energy Industrial Goods Inflation: 1.24 % (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
- Euro area Energy Inflation: 14.3 % (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
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