Report published September 24, 2026
Entering the Agentic AI Era for the Commerce Landscape: Goldman Sachs Macro & Thematic Research
Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026
Goldman Sachs analyzes the multi-year shift toward agentic AI commerce, where autonomous agents increasingly execute consumer discovery, comparison, and transactions. While adoption will be gradual across a $2.6tn addressable U.S. spend base, value will accrue to platforms that control consumer intent, trusted payment tokenization, and fraud/identity infrastructure.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Agentic commerce could catalyze the next leg of eCommerce penetration over a 3-5+ year transition, beginning in lower-risk, commoditized categories representing $2.6tn of addressable U.S. consumer spending.
- 2.In digital advertising, commercial intent and ad dollars will migrate toward AI interfaces rather than disappear, mirroring the desktop-to-mobile shift where becoming the default agent preference is the scarce asset.
- 3.Existing card networks (Visa and Mastercard) are positioned as the default foundation for agentic payments via tokenization and authentication protocols, rather than being disintermediated by new payment rails.
Table of Contents
- Examining how Agentic Commerce Might Catalyze the Next Wave of eCommerce Adoption
- Practical Considerations and Scaling Obstacles for Agentic Commerce Adoption
- Agentic Commerce will Create Broad-Based Demand for Fraud and Cybersecurity Solutions
- Digital Advertising: Distribution, Trust, and Integration as Key
- Retailers and Marketplaces: Amazon, Shopify Ecosystem, Merchants
- Payments and FinTech: We see Networks and Modern Credit Issuers as Well-positioned for Agentic Commerce
- Business Services: Identity, Fraud and Credit Infrastructure: EFX, TRU, FICO
- Live event ticketing: Live Nation, StubHub, and Other 3rd Party Ticketing Platforms
- Valuation
Report data
Exhibit 1: Stocks favorably leveraged to agentic commerce growth — as of September 23, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Addressable U.S. Consumer Spending in High-Likelihood Categories | 2.6 USD Trillion | Identified near-term consumer spend opportunity addressable for agentic commerce adoption. |
| Share of Online Buyers Using AI Tools for Product Discovery | 44% | Proportion of online shoppers using AI tools for discovering products and conducting comparative price analysis. |
| eCommerce Acceleration Sensitivity from Card-Present Agentic Penetration | 1.0 percentage points | Roughly 2% agentic penetration of high-likelihood card-present retail categories could accelerate total eCommerce growth by 1 pt. |
| Global Retail Media Market Size | 170 USD Billion | Global retail media revenue grew at a 17% 5-year CAGR from $77bn in 2020. |
| Retailer Cybersecurity Spend as a Percent of Revenue | 75 bps | Average retailer cybersecurity expenditure, implying cybersecurity spending of 1-2% of eCommerce revenue. |
Reports in this series
Entering the Agentic AI Era for the Commerce Landscape is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
Looking for the latest edition? Americas Technology Entering the Agentic AI Era for the Commerce Landscape [Presentation] (Sep 28, 2026)
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