Report published September 25, 2026

End of Week Market Intelligence: Here Comes AI – Goldman Sachs Equity Research

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs reviews a resilient week where US equities gained ~1% despite 10-year yields reaching 5.17% and Q3 GDP tracking rising to 3.4%. The report analyzes hyperscaler AI capex, noting that while clearing a 15% ROIC requires $1.42 trillion in cumulative 2028–30 revenue, valuations have de-rated to a 10-year low.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The six major US hyperscalers (GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, ORCL, and SPCX) require ~$1.42 trillion in cumulative CY2028–30 revenues (~$11.6B annual revenue per GW) to achieve a 15% ROIC hurdle on current AI capex.
2.Hyperscaler valuations have de-rated to their lowest level in 10 years as earnings growth has caught up with and exceeded share performance.
3.Macro resilience continues despite 10-year Treasury yields rising 20 bp to 5.17%, with Goldman Sachs economists raising their Q3 2026 GDP growth tracker to +3.4% on strong durable goods orders.

... and you may be wearing it
chart of the week
What to watch for
This week's market performance - September 25, 2026, 12:00 PM

Report data

Exhibit 1: Hyperscaler valuations have de-rated to lowest level in 10 years — as of September 25, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
10-year Treasury yield	5.17%	Surge in yields over the week influenced by strong S&P PMI surveys.
Q3 2026 GDP Growth Tracker	3.4%	Raised following a strong core capital goods / durable goods report.
Hyperscaler cumulative CY2028-30 revenue requirement	1.42 USD Trillion	Combined revenues required by six hyperscalers to clear a 15% ROIC hurdle on AI investments.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dispersion index	48.1 index points	Modest uptick signaling slight improvement in sentiment balance.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; University of Michigan. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.