Report published September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs: EM Weekly Kickstart – Brazil Elections and US Bond Yields Spike

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

MSCI EM gained 1.3% w/w led by North Asian tech equities, while rate-sensitive markets lagged amid a sharp rise in the US 10-year yield above 5%. Investors are positioning for upside in Brazilian equities ahead of the October 4th first-round presidential election.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.MSCI EM gained 1.3% week-over-week driven by AI-exposed North Asian markets (Korea +4%, Taiwan +2%), while rate-sensitive markets lagged due to surging US Treasury yields.
2.Ahead of Brazil's Oct 4 election, Brazilian equities maintained strong gains (>10% since mid-August); historically, MSCI Brazil has gained 4-7% in local currency between Round 1 and Round 2, led by Energy and rate-sensitive sectors.
3.US 10-year yields rose 50 bps over the past month to above 5%, a 2.4 standard deviation move; historical data shows monthly yield jumps exceeding 2 s.d. pressure EM equities, though resilient US and global growth mitigates this impact.

Focus: Brazil Elections in focus ahead of the First-round
Focus: US Bond Yields Spike
Allocation and Key Market Views
Performance Snapshot: Regions, Markets, Commodities and FX
Leaders & Laggards
Market Breadth, Concentration and Volatility
Earnings Revisions
Valuations in Context
Fund Flows and Liquidity
Style Monitor
Brazil Rate Sensitivity
CEEMEA Implementations
Macro Forecasts

Report data

Exhibit 4: While performance has varied across cycles, Energy and rate-sensitives - Utilities and Financials/ discretionary have led on a median basis between Round 1 and 2 — as of September 25, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
MSCI EM Index Weekly Return	1.3%	Led by AI-exposed North Asia while rate-sensitive markets lagged.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Level	5.18%	Rose sharply during the week before retreating slightly while holding above 5%.
US 10-Year Yield 1-Month Change	50 bps	Represents a 2.4 standard deviation move based on 2-year monthly changes.
MSCI EM Forward P/E Valuation	9.9 x	Valuation stands at -2.1 s.d. relative to the 10-year average.
EM Equities Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Net Flows	1.5 US$ bn	Led by Taiwan (+US$1.7bn) and India (+US$0.4bn), offset by Korea (-US$0.5bn).