Report published August 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs: AI Exposure Driving Regional FX Disparity in EM Asia
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 30, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Danny Suwanapruti, Chris Poh, Xinquan Chen, Lisheng Wang, Irene Choi, Goohoon Kwon, CFA, Arjun Varma, Santanu Sengupta, Andrew Tilton
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Emerging Asia FX performance is diverging sharply based on exposure to the global AI and technology boom, favoring tech exporters (KRW, TWD, SGD, MYR) over high-yielding counterparts (IDR, PHP, INR). Goldman Sachs expects USD/Asia to grind lower, maintaining a bullish outlook on tech-related FX and a cautious stance on duration across the region.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Exposure to the AI and tech export boom is driving regional FX outperformance, favoring tech-heavy currencies (KRW, SGD, MYR, TWD) over non-tech, high-yielding currencies (INR, IDR, PHP).
- 2.South Korean Won staged a 12% rally over the summer as equity outflows moderated against a surging record current account surplus forecast of USD 400bn (19% of GDP) for 2026.
- 3.Chinese Yuan is expected to remain on a gradual appreciation path supported by solid exports, valuation discounts, and policy goals for currency internationalization, with USD/CNY forecast revised to 6.40 over 12 months.
Table of Contents
- 1. AI’s haves versus have-nots are driving Asian FX performance.
- 2. South Korea - Moderating equity outflows combined with record exports drive a 12% KRW rally over the summer.
- 3. Bank of Korea (BoK) delivered a dovish hike in August, while excess tax revenues could see the budget deficit halved in 2027.
- 4. China – Despite slower economic growth in July, solid export growth alongside sluggish domestic demand should keep the CNY on an appreciation trend.
- 5. Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore – Tech-related currencies outperform.
- 6. Thailand - Higher gold prices offset THB weakness from current account deterioration and negative real rate differentials.
- 7. Indonesia - Bonds supported by lower SRBI yields, but we remain cautious on the IDR as rate differentials narrow.
- 8. Hawkish RBI minutes bring forward hike pricing, but December remains our base case.
- 9. Philippines - Volatile energy prices, risk of severe El Niño and potential wage hikes keep inflation outlook elevated.
- Summary tables
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 14: Our views on relative performance of NJA FX and rates (3 month outlook)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| South Korea Current Account Surplus Forecast | 400 USD billion | Revised up to a record 19% of GDP for 2026 from 6.5% of GDP in 2025. |
| KRW Rally vs USD | 12% | KRW staged a 12% rally vs USD over the summer as equity outflows moderated. |
| USD/KRW 12M Forecast | 1350 KRW per USD | Revised USD/KRW forecasts to 1390, 1370, and 1350 on a 3M/6M/12M horizon from 1460, 1440, and 1420. |
| USD/CNY 12M Forecast | 6.40 CNY per USD | Revised USD/CNY forecasts to 6.70, 6.60, and 6.40 over 3, 6, and 12 months. |
| Bank of Korea Policy Rate Hike | 25 bp | BoK hiked policy rate by 25bp in August; projected terminal rate is 3.25%. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- South Korea Current Account Surplus Forecast: 400 USD billion (2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- KRW Rally vs USD: 12 % (July-August 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- USD/KRW 12M Forecast: 1350 KRW per USD (12M horizon) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- USD/CNY 12M Forecast: 6.40 CNY per USD (12M horizon) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Bank of Korea Policy Rate Hike: 25 bp (August 2026) · Source: Bank of Korea
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