Report published September 23, 2026

Deep Dive into the LatAm Refining Markets and Equities Implications — Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026

Latin America's refining network of ~8 mmbpd suffers from below-average utilization (~70%), which will gradually rise via PEMEX's turnaround while greenfield expansions remain absent outside Petrobras's 320 kbpd project. As a result, the region remains structurally short diesel (~20-25% imported), supporting import-parity pricing for Petrobras and feedstock export opportunities to US Gulf Coast refiners.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Latin America possesses ~8 mmbpd of refining capacity (~7% of global capacity), but operates at a sub-global utilization rate of ~70% due to infrastructure degradation and underinvestment in Mexico and Venezuela.
2.The region will remain structurally short of diesel, requiring net imports to cover ~20-25% of regional demand, providing an incentive for national oil companies (like Petrobras) to adhere to international parity pricing.
3.Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Petrobras, supported by brownfield refining expansions adding +320 kbpd by 2030, an attractive valuation, and ~13-25% FCF yields.

An overview of LatAm’s refining market
LatAm refining market chartbook
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Argentina
Colombia
Implications to the equities in our LatAm O&G coverage
Fuel pricing in the region

Report data

Exhibit 1: We estimate Latin America has a ~8mnbpd installed refining capacity (nameplate capacity), mainly allocated in Brazil, Venezuela and Mexico and representing 7% of global refining capacity

Metric	Estimate	Context
Latin America refining capacity	8.0 mmbpd	Nameplate capacity representing ~7% of global refining capacity, concentrated in Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Average refining utilization rate in Latin America (select countries)	70.0%	Compared to the estimated global average utilization rate of ~83%.
LatAm diesel demand (selected countries)	1.9 mmbpd	Accounts for approximately 7% of global diesel demand.
Net diesel imports in LatAm's largest markets	430.0 kbpd	Accounts for ~23% of regional diesel demand in 2026E.
Petrobras planned refining capacity addition	320.0 kbpd	Refining growth projects in Brazil generating an estimated USD 1.5 bn EBITDA/year on ~USD 5 bn growth capex.

Source: ANP, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; ANP, Argentina Ministry of Energy, Company data, OPEC, UPME, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Petrobras strategic plan, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.