Report published September 30, 2026

Colombia: MPC Surprises Again with a 25bp Hike to 12.25% – Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

Colombia's MPC unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25bp to 12.25% in a 4-1-2 vote, defying consensus expectations for a pause. Future decisions remain data-dependent, with upcoming structural fiscal reforms, El Niño inflation risks, and currency dynamics acting as key catalysts.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The MPC surprised market consensus by raising the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 12.25% in a 4-1-2 vote split.
2.Forward guidance explicitly links the next policy decision to three factors: the impact of El Niño, activity recovery after the August earthquake, and structural fiscal measures.
3.A follow-up 25bp rate hike is not guaranteed given economic deceleration, restrictive policy levels, and currency appreciation dampening core inflation.

DETAILS:
MPC Delivered 25bp Hike to 12.25% in September After Remaining on Hold Since June

Report data

MPC Delivered 25bp Hike to 12.25% in September After Remaining on Hold Since June

Metric	Estimate	Context
Banco de la República Monetary Policy Rate	12.25%	MPC hiked the policy rate by 25bp to 12.25%.
MPC Vote Split	4-1-2 votes	Four votes for +25bp, one vote for +50bp, two votes for a hold.
Two-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations	4%	Inflation expectations from surveys sit at the top end of the target band.