Report published September 1, 2026
Colombia: 2Q2026 Current Account Deficit Widens to Four-Year High — Goldman Sachs Research
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Santiago Tellez
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Colombia's current account deficit widened to US$4.7bn (3.5% of GDP) in 2Q2026, driven by a wider goods trade deficit amid firm domestic demand and FX strength. The deficit was funded by US$4.2bn in FDI inflows, while financial account portfolio data was distorted by the unwinding of total return swap (TRS) positions.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Colombia's current account deficit widened to US$4.7bn (3.5% of GDP) in 2Q2026 from US$2.5bn a year ago, driven by a wider goods trade deficit.
- 2.The financial account recorded a US$3.7bn surplus boosted by US$4.2bn in FDI inflows, though portfolio flows saw a record US$7.4bn outflow due to the unwinding of total return swaps (TRS).
- 3.Goldman Sachs forecasts the current account deficit to widen modestly to 2.5%–3.0% of GDP in 2026–2027 and does not expect the deficit to become a binding constraint on monetary policy.
Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE
- KEY NUMBERS (2Q2026)
- DETAILS
- FDI Continues to Finance External Imbalance, but FDI Has Been Softening Since 2023
- Wider Trade in Goods Deficit; External Imbalance Supported by Unilateral Transfers
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
FDI Continues to Finance External Imbalance, but FDI Has Been Softening Since 2023
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance | -4.7 USD billion | Deficit widened compared to -US$2.5bn in 2Q2025 and consensus expectation of -US$3.5bn |
| Current Account Deficit as % of GDP | 3.5% | Quarterly GDP share widened from 2.4% in 2Q2025 |
| Rolling 4-Quarter Current Account Deficit as % of GDP | 2.5% | Widened from 2.2% in 1Q2026 ($12.9bn vs $10.7bn) |
| Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows | 4.2 USD billion | Highest inflow since 2023, up from US$3.4bn in 2Q2025 |
| Non-Resident Portfolio Flows | -7.4 USD billion | Record outflow driven by TRS unwind and reduction in global bonds position (-US$10.3bn) |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Current Account Balance: -4.7 USD billion (2Q2026) · Source: Banco de la República
- Current Account Deficit as % of GDP: 3.5 % (2Q2026) · Source: Banco de la República
- Rolling 4-Quarter Current Account Deficit as % of GDP: 2.5 % (2Q2026) · Source: Banco de la República
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows: 4.2 USD billion (2Q2026) · Source: Banco de la República
- Non-Resident Portfolio Flows: -7.4 USD billion (2Q2026) · Source: Banco de la República
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