Report published October 1, 2026
Cocoa: Is This the 2023-24 Rally All Over Again? – Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · October 1, 2026
Cocoa prices face renewed upside risk as forecasts of a Super El Niño threaten West African production amid low inventories and reduced scope for further demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs does not expect a repeat of the 2023-24 five-fold price rally, as a financial futures liquidity squeeze is not their base case.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Cocoa prices face substantial physical upside risk as forecasts of a potential Super El Niño threaten the West African harvest (which accounts for ~65% of global supply).
- 2.The physical market is less prepared to buffer a crop failure than in 2023-24, due to lower visible inventories and the fact that significant demand destruction and manufacturer reformulations have already taken place.
- 3.A repeat of the five-fold price explosion seen in 2023-24 is not the base case because the extreme futures liquidity breakdown and margin-call spiral are unlikely to recur with the same magnitude.
Table of Contents
- Cocoa: Is This The 2023-24 Rally All Over Again?
- A Super El Niño Could Tighten the Physical Cocoa Market, Potentially Even More Than in 2024
- Cocoa Requires Stable Weather Conditions... Which a Super El Niño Can Disrupt
- The Main West African Growing Season Has So Far Tracked the 2023-24 Pattern of Excessive Rainfall Followed by Dryness ...
- ... And, Like in 2023-24, Swollen Shoot Disease Continues to Weigh on West African Cocoa Supply
- A History Plagued By Disease
- But This Time, the Physical Market May Be Less Prepared Than in 2024
- Yet, We Do Not Expect a Repeat of the Extraordinary 2023-24 Rally As a Financial Liquidity Squeeze Is Not Our Base Case
Report data
Exhibit 8: Repeated Margin Increases by US and UK Cocoa Exchanges Significantly Reduced Futures Market Liquidity, Amplifying Volatility In an Already Physically Tight Cocoa Market
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| West Africa share of global cocoa supply | 65% | Concentration of world cocoa production in West Africa |
| Ivory Coast share of global cocoa supply | 40% | Historical global supply share of Ivory Coast |
| 2023-24 cocoa production YoY change in Ivory Coast | -25% | Estimated decline in cocoa production during the 2023-24 season |
| 2023-24 cocoa production YoY change in Ghana | -31% | Estimated decline in cocoa production during the 2023-24 season |
| Forecast cocoa production decline in Ghana | 16% | Ghana cocoa regulator forecast for 2026-27 output decline |
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Agriculture Analyst is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on October 1, 2026.
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