Report published September 26, 2026

China Weekly Kickstart: Markets Lost Around 1% – Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy Research

Goldman Sachs · September 26, 2026

MSCI China and CSI300 fell 0.8% and 1.5% respectively during the week as President Xi conducted a US state visit and delegations reached agreements on reciprocal tariff reductions and trade councils. Goldman Sachs projects 17% and 24% 12-month upside for MSCI China and CSI300, respectively, favoring H-shares over A-shares in the near term.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Chinese equity benchmarks slipped over the week, with MXCN down 0.8% and CSI300 down 1.5%, amid President Xi's state visit to the US and the conclusion of the eighth round of trade consultations.
2.Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese equity earnings could rise by 0.3% for every 5 percentage point decrease in US tariffs, while a 1 standard deviation drop in policy uncertainty could boost forward P/E by 5%.
3.Goldman Sachs' proprietary A-H rotation model indicates H-shares are poised to modestly outperform A-shares over the next three months.

Performance
Earnings and valuations
Flows
Policies and news
Charts of the Week: Tariffs
Charts of the Week: Fund Flows and Positioning
Charts of the Week: Proprietary Models and Barometers
Goldman Sachs' China strategy and economic view at a glance
Macro indicators summary
Performance snapshot: Global markets, commodities, FX and rates
Weekly performance summary
Weekly top and bottom performers in MSCI China
Sector performance
Relative performance of offshore China sectors
Relative performance of onshore China sectors
Earnings momentum and revisions
China valuations
Sector valuations
Sector valuations and EPS growth of MSCI China and CSI300 (based on bottom-up consensus median estimates)
Regional valuations
MSCI market and sector index valuations
Stock Connect weekly flows
Style investing monitor (China Offshore)
Style investing monitor (China Onshore)
China specific baskets performance
A/H premium and A-shares liquidity
Breakdown of the Chinese alphabet soup

Report data

Exhibit 3: We estimate that earnings of Chinese equities could be boosted by 0.3% for each 5pp decrease in US tariffs — as of September 24, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Effective US Tariff Rate on Chinese Products	23%	The tariff level charged by the US on Chinese products.
MSCI China 12M Forward P/E	10.2 x	Consensus 12m forward price-to-earnings ratio for MSCI China.
CSI300 12M Forward P/E	12.9 x	Consensus 12m forward price-to-earnings ratio for CSI300.
Southbound Net Inflows YTD	56 US$ bn	Year-to-date Southbound Stock Connect net buying.
MSCI China 12M Index Target	85 index points	Goldman Sachs index target for MSCI China.

Source: White House, Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet, IBES, MSCI; FactSet, IBES, CSI; Wind; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.