Report published September 30, 2026

China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker – Goldman Sachs Equity Research

Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026

China's August transformer export value dropped 22% YoY, but shipments to the US surged 542% YoY amid persistently high pricing across global markets. Elevated US PPI and export ASPs confirm that global power transformer shortages remain tight, reinforcing Goldman Sachs' Buy ratings on Huaming, Siyuan, and NARI Technology.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.China's large (>10MVA) transformer export value fell 22% YoY in August to c.Rmb1,744mn (vs. +41% in July), partly due to summer vacation seasonality, while South Korea's exports surged 72% YoY.
2.China's transformer exports to the US remained exceptionally resilient, surging 542% YoY in August to c.Rmb179mn/c.USD27mn despite broader trade policy restrictions.
3.Global transformer shortage conditions show no signs of easing as pricing remains elevated across US PPI (+7.6% YoY) and Chinese export ASPs to the US (+112% YoY).

Implications for stocks:
Pricing appeared stable at a high level, from US PPI, Korea and China export pricing as well as key raw material pricing perspectives, showing no signs of transformer shortage easing:

Report data

Exhibit 1: We estimate that the US power transformer demand/local supply gap will narrow from 72% currently to 61% in 2028E; despite China export ASP fluctuations, US PPI has stabilized at a high level

Metric	Estimate	Context
China large (>10MVA) transformer export value	1,744 Rmb mn	Total Chinese large transformer export value (c.USD260mn), slowing from +41% YoY in July.
China transformer export value to the US	179 Rmb mn	Exports to the US (c.USD27mn) with 100% contribution coming from the 10-220MVA segment.
South Korea large (>10MVA) transformer export value	176 USD mn	Total South Korean large transformer exports, up from +34% YoY in July.
US PPI for power and specialty transformer	7.6%	Producer price index showing sustained high transformer prices in the US.
China (10-220MVA) transformer export pricing to the US	112%	Export ASP to the US; past 3-month rolling average price (June-Aug) +53% YoY.